Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Karlsruhe
Schalke 04
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Werder Bremen
|
23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | +13 | 42 |
| 2 |
Hamburg
|
23 | 10 | 11 | 2 | +21 | 41 |
| 3 |
Darmstadt
|
23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 |
St Pauli
|
23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 5 |
Schalke 04
|
23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | +18 | 40 |
| 6 |
Heidenheim
|
23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | +0 | 38 |
| 7 |
Nurnberg
|
23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | +0 | 36 |
| 8 |
Paderborn
|
24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 33 |
| 9 |
Karlsruhe
|
23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | +5 | 32 |
| 10 |
Regensburg
|
23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | +5 | 31 |
| 11 |
Holstein Kiel
|
24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | -8 | 31 |
| 12 |
Hannover
|
24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | -9 | 31 |
| 13 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf
|
23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 26 |
| 14 |
Dresden
|
23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -8 | 26 |
| 15 |
Hansa Rostock
|
23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 25 |
| 16 |
Sandhausen
|
23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -15 | 25 |
| 17 |
Erzgebirge Aue
|
24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -25 | 16 |
| 18 | Ingolstadt | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -21 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Holstein Kiel
Karlsruhe
Karlsruhe
Nurnberg
Karlsruhe
Sandhausen
Werder Bremen
Karlsruhe
Darmstadt
Karlsruhe
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.