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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Manuel Albino Godinho

Arouca

T S U S U

1–2

Full-time

Moreirense

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,7

Scored

2,2

1,7

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

29%

24%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

41%

35%

Both score Ø 50%

59%

41%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

11 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

12 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 7. · Moreirense 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	14	3	1	+26	45
2	Benfica	18	14	1	3	+35	43
3	Porto	17	12	4	1	+26	40
4	Sp Braga	17	8	5	4	+14	29
5	Pacos Ferreira	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Rio Ave	17	7	4	6	+2	25
7	Arouca	17	5	9	3	+3	24
8	Guimaraes	17	6	5	6	-4	23
9	Vitoria Setubal	17	5	7	5	-2	22
10	Maritimo	18	6	3	9	-10	21
11	Estoril	18	5	5	8	-6	20
12	U. Madeira	18	5	5	8	-11	20
13	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-16	18
14	Nacional	17	4	5	8	-6	17
15	Moreirense	17	4	5	8	-8	17
16	Academica	18	4	5	9	-15	17
17	Boavista	17	2	4	11	-18	10
18	Tondela	18	2	3	13	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	0	1	+24	24
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+12	23
4	Rio Ave	9	6	0	3	+4	18
5	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	5	2	2	+8	17
7	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+4	15
8	Belenenses	8	4	3	1	+2	15
9	U. Madeira	9	4	3	2	+0	15
10	Academica	10	4	3	3	-3	15
11	Maritimo	9	4	2	3	+5	14
12	Arouca	8	4	2	2	+3	14
13	Nacional	8	3	3	2	+1	12
14	Guimaraes	9	2	3	4	-1	9
15	Moreirense	8	2	3	3	-1	9
16	Vitoria Setubal	9	1	6	2	-7	9
17	Boavista	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+14	22
2	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Porto	8	5	2	1	+11	17
4	Guimaraes	8	4	2	2	-3	14
5	Vitoria Setubal	8	4	1	3	+5	13
6	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	3	3	-1	12
8	Arouca	9	1	7	1	+0	10
9	Moreirense	9	2	2	5	-7	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-2	7
11	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-15	7
12	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-6	5
13	Nacional	9	1	2	6	-7	5
14	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
15	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-10	5
16	U. Madeira	9	1	2	6	-11	5
17	Belenenses	9	0	3	6	-18	3
18	Academica	8	0	2	6	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.