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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Moreirense

T S U T T

4–1

Full-time

Belenenses

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,0

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 13%

15%

10%

Points per game

0,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

45%

35%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

45%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,9

0,6

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%

18 Shots 3

10 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 0

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Moreirense 17. · Belenenses 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	21	19	2	0	+41	59
2	Sp Lisbon	21	17	2	2	+28	53
3	Benfica	21	15	2	4	+37	47
4	Sp Braga	21	11	5	5	+15	38
5	Gil Vicente	21	9	7	5	+8	34
6	Guimaraes	21	8	6	7	+6	30
7	Estoril	21	6	9	6	+1	27
8	Portimonense	21	7	5	9	-2	26
9	Maritimo	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	Santa Clara	21	6	6	9	-14	24
11	Vizela	21	5	8	8	-12	23
12	Pacos Ferreira	21	4	9	8	-9	21
13	Boavista	21	3	11	7	-9	20
14	Tondela	21	6	2	13	-14	20
15	Arouca	21	4	6	11	-19	18
16	Famalicao	21	3	8	10	-14	17
17	Moreirense	20	3	7	10	-13	16
18	Belenenses	20	2	6	12	-25	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Sp Braga	11	6	3	2	+11	21
4	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	Benfica	10	6	1	3	+14	19
6	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
7	Boavista	11	3	7	1	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	11	4	3	4	+2	15
9	Maritimo	10	3	5	2	+4	14
10	Vizela	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Tondela	11	4	0	7	-6	12
12	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	5	4	-3	11
13	Arouca	10	3	1	6	-12	10
14	Estoril	10	1	6	3	-2	9
15	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
16	Portimonense	11	2	3	6	-6	9
17	Famalicao	10	1	5	4	-7	8
18	Belenenses	10	2	2	6	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+23	28
3	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+14	25
4	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-9	11
9	Guimaraes	11	2	4	5	-3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-8	10
12	Famalicao	11	2	3	6	-7	9
13	Arouca	11	1	5	5	-7	8
14	Tondela	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Moreirense	11	1	4	6	-10	7
16	Santa Clara	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	Belenenses	10	0	4	6	-10	4
18	Boavista	10	0	4	6	-12	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.