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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Estoril

S U T T T

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,8

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

44%

61%

Both score Ø 61%

61%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 9

15 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 7. · Arouca 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	19	17	2	0	+38	53
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	2	2	+23	47
3	Benfica	19	14	2	3	+36	44
4	Sp Braga	19	10	5	4	+14	35
5	Gil Vicente	19	8	6	5	+7	30
6	Guimaraes	19	7	6	6	+6	27
7	Estoril	18	6	7	5	+2	25
8	Portimonense	19	7	4	8	-1	25
9	Maritimo	19	6	6	7	-4	24
10	Santa Clara	19	5	5	9	-15	20
11	Boavista	19	3	10	6	-8	19
12	Pacos Ferreira	19	4	7	8	-9	19
13	Vizela	19	4	7	8	-13	19
14	Tondela	19	5	2	12	-13	17
15	Moreirense	19	3	7	9	-11	16
16	Famalicao	19	3	7	9	-12	16
17	Arouca	18	3	5	10	-18	14
18	Belenenses	19	2	6	11	-22	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	9	0	0	+20	27
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+12	25
3	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+15	19
4	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+9	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+8	17
6	Boavista	10	3	6	1	+3	15
7	Santa Clara	10	4	3	3	-6	15
8	Gil Vicente	10	4	2	4	+2	14
9	Maritimo	9	3	4	2	+4	13
10	Tondela	10	4	0	6	-4	12
11	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	4	4	-3	10
12	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-5	10
13	Arouca	9	3	1	5	-10	10
14	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
15	Portimonense	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Estoril	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Belenenses	9	2	2	5	-12	8
18	Famalicao	9	1	4	4	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	2	0	+18	26
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+21	25
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+11	22
4	Sp Braga	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Estoril	10	5	2	3	+3	17
6	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+5	16
7	Portimonense	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
9	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-2	10
10	Famalicao	10	2	3	5	-5	9
11	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Vizela	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Moreirense	10	1	4	5	-8	7
14	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-9	5
15	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-9	5
16	Arouca	9	0	4	5	-8	4
17	Belenenses	10	0	4	6	-10	4
18	Boavista	9	0	4	5	-11	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.