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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Moreirense

S T T S T

1–4

Full-time

Arouca

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 27%

23%

31%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

54%

23%

Both score Ø 35%

46%

23%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

0,9

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 16. · Arouca 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+21	32
2	Porto	14	9	4	1	+20	31
3	Sp Lisbon	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Sp Braga	13	8	2	3	+12	26
5	Guimaraes	13	7	3	3	+7	24
6	Rio Ave	13	6	2	5	+1	20
7	Chaves	13	4	7	2	+2	19
8	Belenenses	14	4	5	5	-4	17
9	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-4	17
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	4	5	-1	16
11	Pacos Ferreira	14	4	4	6	-5	16
12	Estoril	13	4	3	6	-5	15
13	Arouca	13	4	2	7	-8	14
14	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-4	13
15	Nacional	13	3	2	8	-8	11
16	Moreirense	13	3	2	8	-8	11
17	Feirense	13	3	2	8	-18	11
18	Tondela	13	2	3	8	-10	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+13	19
3	Porto	7	6	1	0	+11	19
4	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+13	16
5	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	3	1	+2	12
6	Chaves	7	2	4	1	+1	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Arouca	7	3	1	3	+0	10
10	Guimaraes	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Belenenses	6	2	3	1	+0	9
12	Rio Ave	7	3	0	4	-2	9
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Estoril	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Tondela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	Nacional	7	2	1	4	-5	7
17	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-1	5
18	Feirense	7	1	1	5	-12	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+5	15
3	Porto	7	3	3	1	+9	12
4	Rio Ave	6	3	2	1	+3	11
5	Chaves	6	2	3	1	+1	9
6	Sp Lisbon	6	2	2	2	-1	8
7	Estoril	7	2	2	3	-3	8
8	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-4	8
9	Sp Braga	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-5	7
11	Feirense	6	2	1	3	-6	7
12	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Moreirense	7	2	0	5	-7	6
14	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-3	4
16	Pacos Ferreira	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Tondela	7	0	2	5	-8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.