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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Porto

U U S U S

2–0

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 60%

64%

55%

Points per game

2,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 53%

55%

50%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

2,1

1,4

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

16 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Pacos Ferreira 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	23	19	4	0	+34	61
2	Sp Braga	22	16	1	5	+21	49
3	Porto	22	14	6	2	+25	48
4	Benfica	23	14	6	3	+23	48
5	Pacos Ferreira	22	12	5	5	+9	41
6	Guimaraes	23	10	5	8	+0	35
7	Santa Clara	23	9	4	10	+1	31
8	Moreirense	23	7	9	7	-4	30
9	Rio Ave	23	6	8	9	-7	26
10	Belenenses	23	5	10	8	-7	25
11	Tondela	23	7	3	13	-16	24
12	Portimonense	23	6	5	12	-7	23
13	Gil Vicente	23	6	4	13	-11	22
14	Nacional	23	5	6	12	-10	21
15	Boavista	23	4	9	10	-12	21
16	Maritimo	23	6	3	14	-12	21
17	Farense	23	4	7	12	-10	19
18	Famalicao	22	4	7	11	-17	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+16	29
2	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+14	29
3	Sp Braga	11	9	1	1	+13	28
4	Pacos Ferreira	11	8	2	1	+9	26
5	Porto	11	7	3	1	+12	24
6	Tondela	12	7	2	3	+3	23
7	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+6	18
8	Moreirense	12	3	7	2	-1	16
9	Guimaraes	12	5	1	6	-5	16
10	Rio Ave	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Santa Clara	11	4	2	5	+1	14
12	Belenenses	12	3	5	4	-3	14
13	Farense	12	3	4	5	+0	13
14	Nacional	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gil Vicente	11	3	2	6	-4	11
16	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-6	11
17	Maritimo	11	2	2	7	-9	8
18	Famalicao	11	1	5	5	-10	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+18	32
2	Porto	11	7	3	1	+13	24
3	Sp Braga	11	7	0	4	+8	21
4	Benfica	11	5	4	2	+9	19
5	Guimaraes	11	5	4	2	+5	19
6	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Pacos Ferreira	11	4	3	4	+0	15
8	Moreirense	11	4	2	5	-3	14
9	Maritimo	12	4	1	7	-3	13
10	Belenenses	11	2	5	4	-4	11
11	Gil Vicente	12	3	2	7	-7	11
12	Famalicao	11	3	2	6	-7	11
13	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-8	11
14	Boavista	12	1	7	4	-6	10
15	Nacional	11	2	3	6	-6	9
16	Farense	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Portimonense	12	1	2	9	-13	5
18	Tondela	11	0	1	10	-19	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.