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Primeira Liga

Referee: Andre Moreira

Arouca

U U S S U

2–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 33%

39%

27%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

48%

45%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Guimaraes 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	28	1	4	+63	85
2	Sp Lisbon	33	26	5	2	+54	83
3	Porto	34	23	4	7	+37	73
4	Sp Braga	33	16	10	7	+23	58
5	Arouca	33	13	14	6	+9	53
6	Pacos Ferreira	33	13	9	11	+1	48
7	Estoril	33	13	8	12	+0	47
8	Rio Ave	33	13	8	12	-1	47
9	Guimaraes	33	9	12	12	-8	39
10	Nacional	33	10	8	15	-13	38
11	Belenenses	33	9	11	13	-23	38
12	Maritimo	33	10	5	18	-17	35
13	Moreirense	33	8	9	16	-17	33
14	Boavista	34	8	9	17	-17	33
15	Vitoria Setubal	33	6	11	16	-21	29
16	U. Madeira	33	7	8	18	-22	29
17	Tondela	33	7	6	20	-22	27
18	Academica	33	5	10	18	-26	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	0	2	+36	42
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+27	42
3	Porto	17	12	2	3	+22	38
4	Sp Braga	16	11	4	1	+28	37
5	Estoril	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Arouca	16	8	5	3	+10	29
7	Nacional	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Rio Ave	17	9	1	7	+2	28
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	U. Madeira	16	6	6	4	+3	24
11	Maritimo	17	7	2	8	+2	23
12	Guimaraes	17	5	7	5	+4	22
13	Belenenses	16	5	5	6	-8	20
14	Academica	17	5	5	7	-8	20
15	Boavista	17	4	5	8	-7	17
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	8	6	-10	14
17	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-10	11
18	Tondela	16	2	4	10	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	1	2	+27	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+27	41
3	Porto	17	11	2	4	+15	35
4	Arouca	17	5	9	3	-1	24
5	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	5	5	-1	23
6	Moreirense	17	6	4	7	-7	22
7	Sp Braga	17	5	6	6	-5	21
8	Rio Ave	16	4	7	5	-3	19
9	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-15	18
10	Tondela	17	5	2	10	-9	17
11	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-12	17
12	Estoril	16	4	4	8	-8	16
13	Boavista	17	4	4	9	-10	16
14	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	3	10	-11	15
15	Maritimo	16	3	3	10	-19	12
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-18	10
17	Academica	16	0	5	11	-18	5
18	U. Madeira	17	1	2	14	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.