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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Arouca

T S S T S

0–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

36%

57%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

29%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

29%

57%

Average goals

2,2

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

8 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

18 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 11. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	2	1	+24	38
2	Porto	15	10	4	1	+21	34
3	Sp Braga	15	10	2	3	+14	32
4	Sp Lisbon	15	9	3	3	+12	30
5	Guimaraes	14	8	3	3	+9	27
6	Rio Ave	15	7	2	6	+0	23
7	Chaves	15	5	7	3	+2	22
8	Maritimo	15	6	2	7	-2	20
9	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Boavista	15	4	5	6	-2	17
11	Arouca	14	5	2	7	-5	17
12	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-5	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	15	4	4	7	-7	16
14	Estoril	15	4	3	8	-7	15
15	Feirense	15	4	2	9	-18	14
16	Nacional	15	3	2	10	-11	11
17	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-12	11
18	Tondela	15	2	4	9	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	+12	22
3	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+15	19
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Vitoria Setubal	8	4	1	3	+4	13
6	Maritimo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Chaves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Guimaraes	7	3	3	1	+4	12
9	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	Rio Ave	8	4	0	4	-1	12
11	Arouca	7	3	1	3	+0	10
12	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Tondela	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Estoril	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Nacional	8	2	1	5	-7	7
17	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-10	7
18	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+9	19
2	Guimaraes	7	5	0	2	+5	15
3	Porto	7	3	3	1	+9	12
4	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Sp Braga	7	3	1	3	+0	10
7	Chaves	7	2	3	2	+0	9
8	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
9	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Estoril	8	2	2	4	-4	8
11	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	7
12	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-5	7
13	Feirense	7	2	1	4	-8	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-8	6
16	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Tondela	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.