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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Belenenses

S T U U U

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,2

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 21%

16%

26%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

16%

37%

Both score Ø 37%

26%

47%

Average goals

1,3

2,2

Scored

0,5

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 13. · Nacional 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	16	3	0	+30	51
2	Porto	19	12	5	2	+22	41
3	Sp Braga	19	13	1	5	+15	40
4	Benfica	19	11	5	3	+16	38
5	Pacos Ferreira	19	10	5	4	+10	35
6	Guimaraes	19	9	5	5	+5	32
7	Santa Clara	19	7	4	8	-2	25
8	Moreirense	20	6	7	7	-6	25
9	Rio Ave	19	5	7	7	-6	22
10	Nacional	19	5	6	8	-6	21
11	Tondela	19	6	3	10	-11	21
12	Portimonense	19	5	4	10	-6	19
13	Belenenses	19	3	9	7	-6	18
14	Boavista	20	3	9	8	-12	18
15	Farense	19	4	5	10	-7	17
16	Maritimo	19	5	2	12	-10	17
17	Gil Vicente	19	4	4	11	-11	16
18	Famalicao	19	3	6	10	-15	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+13	23
2	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+8	22
5	Pacos Ferreira	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Tondela	10	6	2	2	+3	20
7	Portimonense	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Moreirense	10	3	5	2	-1	14
9	Guimaraes	10	4	1	5	-4	13
10	Farense	10	3	3	4	+1	12
11	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	12
12	Nacional	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-1	11
14	Gil Vicente	9	2	2	5	-3	8
15	Santa Clara	9	2	2	5	-4	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Boavista	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Famalicao	10	1	4	5	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Guimaraes	9	5	4	0	+9	19
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Sp Braga	10	6	0	4	+7	18
5	Santa Clara	10	5	2	3	+2	17
6	Benfica	9	4	3	2	+6	15
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	3	3	+3	15
8	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-5	11
9	Boavista	10	1	7	2	-3	10
10	Rio Ave	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Maritimo	10	3	0	7	-4	9
12	Nacional	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Famalicao	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Gil Vicente	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Belenenses	9	1	4	4	-5	7
16	Farense	9	1	2	6	-8	5
17	Portimonense	10	1	2	7	-9	5
18	Tondela	9	0	1	8	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.