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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Nacional

U T T U T

1–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,7

1,2

Scored

0,2

0,5

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 23%

15%

30%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

45%

20%

Both score Ø 38%

40%

35%

Average goals

2,4

1,6

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Belenenses 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	21	16	3	2	+35	51
2	Porto	21	15	5	1	+30	50
3	Sp Lisbon	20	11	5	4	+14	38
4	Sp Braga	20	11	4	5	+14	37
5	Guimaraes	21	10	5	6	+5	35
6	Maritimo	20	9	4	7	+2	31
7	Chaves	21	6	11	4	+2	29
8	Vitoria Setubal	21	8	5	8	+1	29
9	Rio Ave	20	8	3	9	-3	27
10	Arouca	21	8	3	10	-7	27
11	Boavista	20	6	7	7	-1	25
12	Feirense	21	7	4	10	-16	25
13	Belenenses	20	6	6	8	-5	24
14	Pacos Ferreira	21	5	5	11	-12	20
15	Estoril	21	5	4	12	-10	19
16	Moreirense	20	5	3	12	-13	18
17	Tondela	21	3	5	13	-19	14
18	Nacional	20	3	4	13	-17	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+18	31
2	Benfica	11	9	2	0	+25	29
3	Sp Braga	11	8	2	1	+15	26
4	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+15	25
5	Maritimo	10	6	2	2	+6	20
6	Vitoria Setubal	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Chaves	11	4	6	1	+4	18
8	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Rio Ave	10	5	1	4	+0	16
10	Arouca	11	5	1	5	+0	16
11	Feirense	11	4	2	5	-8	14
12	Guimaraes	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Belenenses	10	3	4	3	-1	13
14	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
15	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	Estoril	10	3	1	6	-4	10
17	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
18	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Guimaraes	11	7	1	3	+5	22
3	Porto	10	5	4	1	+12	19
4	Boavista	11	3	5	3	-2	14
5	Sp Lisbon	10	3	4	3	-1	13
6	Sp Braga	9	3	2	4	-1	11
7	Chaves	10	2	5	3	-2	11
8	Rio Ave	10	3	2	5	-3	11
9	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
10	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Arouca	10	3	2	5	-7	11
12	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-8	11
13	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-5	9
14	Estoril	11	2	3	6	-6	9
15	Moreirense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
16	Nacional	10	1	1	8	-10	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	11	1	1	9	-14	4
18	Tondela	11	0	3	8	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.