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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Nacional

T U S U S

2–3

Full-time

Farense

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Farense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/17 matches

Win Ø 23%

28%

18%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

33%

35%

Both score Ø 49%

44%

53%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

10 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 10

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 9. · Farense 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	15	3	0	+28	48
2	Porto	18	12	4	2	+22	40
3	Benfica	18	11	4	3	+16	37
4	Sp Braga	18	12	1	5	+14	37
5	Pacos Ferreira	18	10	5	3	+12	35
6	Guimaraes	17	9	4	4	+7	31
7	Santa Clara	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Moreirense	18	6	6	6	-5	24
9	Nacional	18	5	6	7	-5	21
10	Rio Ave	18	4	7	7	-8	19
11	Belenenses	19	3	9	7	-6	18
12	Tondela	18	5	3	10	-12	18
13	Maritimo	18	5	2	11	-9	17
14	Gil Vicente	18	4	4	10	-8	16
15	Portimonense	18	4	4	10	-9	16
16	Famalicao	19	3	6	10	-15	15
17	Boavista	18	2	8	8	-13	14
18	Farense	17	3	4	10	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	2	1	+10	23
2	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	22
3	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+8	22
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+11	20
5	Pacos Ferreira	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Tondela	9	5	2	2	+2	17
7	Moreirense	9	3	4	2	-1	13
8	Farense	10	3	3	4	+1	12
9	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	12
10	Nacional	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Guimaraes	8	4	0	4	-2	12
12	Portimonense	8	3	2	3	+0	11
13	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-1	11
14	Santa Clara	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Gil Vicente	9	2	2	5	-3	8
16	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Famalicao	10	1	4	5	-10	7
18	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Guimaraes	9	5	4	0	+9	19
3	Porto	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Santa Clara	10	5	2	3	+2	17
5	Sp Braga	9	5	0	4	+6	15
6	Pacos Ferreira	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+6	14
8	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Boavista	9	1	6	2	-3	9
10	Maritimo	9	3	0	6	-3	9
11	Nacional	9	2	3	4	-4	9
12	Famalicao	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Gil Vicente	9	2	2	5	-5	8
14	Belenenses	9	1	4	4	-5	7
15	Rio Ave	9	1	4	4	-8	7
16	Portimonense	10	1	2	7	-9	5
17	Farense	7	0	1	6	-9	1
18	Tondela	9	0	1	8	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.