Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Venezia
Virtus Entella
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Empoli
|
23 | 11 | 11 | 1 | +22 | 44 |
| 2 |
Cittadella
|
23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | +15 | 39 |
| 3 |
Monza
|
23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | +13 | 39 |
| 4 |
Chievo
|
23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | +11 | 39 |
| 5 |
Venezia
|
23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | +9 | 38 |
| 6 |
Salernitana
|
23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | +1 | 38 |
| 7 |
Spal
|
23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | +7 | 36 |
| 8 |
Lecce
|
23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | +10 | 35 |
| 9 |
Frosinone
|
24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Pordenone | 23 | 7 | 11 | 5 | +7 | 32 |
| 11 |
Pisa
|
23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | -4 | 31 |
| 12 |
Vicenza
|
23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | -2 | 26 |
| 13 |
Brescia
|
23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 26 |
| 14 |
Reggina
|
23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -6 | 26 |
| 15 |
Reggiana
|
23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 24 |
| 16 |
Cosenza
|
23 | 3 | 14 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 17 |
Cremonese
|
23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -8 | 23 |
| 18 |
Ascoli
|
23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -11 | 21 |
| 19 |
Pescara
|
24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -23 | 18 |
| 20 |
Virtus Entella
|
23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -19 | 17 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Pescara
Venezia
Venezia
Cremonese
Frosinone
Venezia
Vicenza
Venezia
Venezia
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.