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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Heerenveen

U S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Willem II

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 27%

31%

22%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

50%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

48%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,61 xG 1,13

49% Possession 51%

22 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 10. · Willem II 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	27	21	4	2	+37	+25.5	67
2	PSV Eindhoven	27	18	4	5	+46	+34.1	58
3	Feyenoord	27	15	8	4	+29	+23.4	53
4	Utrecht	27	15	7	5	+9	+3.0	52
5	Go Ahead Eagles	27	13	5	9	+6	+10.5	44
6	Twente	25	12	7	6	+13	+13.8	43
7	AZ Alkmaar	25	11	7	7	+7	+10.5	40
8	Groningen	27	8	8	11	-12	-8.9	32
9	For Sittard	27	9	5	13	-14	-4.9	32
10	Heerenveen	26	8	7	11	-8	-1.4	31
11	Heracles	27	7	10	10	-13	-14.2	31
12	Nijmegen	26	8	6	12	+2	+1.0	30
13	NAC Breda	27	8	6	13	-16	-14.7	30
14	Zwolle	27	7	8	12	-9	-20.4	29
15	Sparta Rotterdam	27	6	10	11	-7	+0.6	28
16	Willem II	27	6	6	15	-16	-22.9	24
17	Waalwijk	27	4	6	17	-22	-19.7	18
18	Almere City	27	4	6	17	-32	-15.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	13	11	2	0	+23	+18.3	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	3	1	+29	+20.8	33
3	Feyenoord	14	9	3	2	+15	+15.1	30
4	Go Ahead Eagles	14	9	3	2	+12	+13.0	30
5	Twente	12	8	3	1	+14	+12.2	27
6	Heerenveen	13	6	6	1	+9	+6.9	24
7	Groningen	13	6	5	2	+7	+2.7	23
8	Utrecht	14	7	2	5	-2	+6.0	23
9	Heracles	14	5	7	2	+5	+3.5	22
10	NAC Breda	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.2	22
11	Zwolle	14	6	2	6	+2	-5.2	20
12	For Sittard	13	6	0	7	-7	+1.9	18
13	Nijmegen	14	4	5	5	+8	+6.4	17
14	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	2	4	+2	+9.0	17
15	Willem II	14	3	3	8	-4	-8.7	12
16	Sparta Rotterdam	13	2	6	5	-4	+3.4	12
17	Waalwijk	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.3	11
18	Almere City	13	2	2	9	-20	-3.9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	14	10	2	2	+14	+7.3	32
2	Utrecht	13	8	5	0	+11	-3.0	29
3	PSV Eindhoven	13	8	1	4	+17	+13.3	25
4	Feyenoord	13	6	5	2	+14	+8.3	23
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	5	3	+5	+1.5	23
6	Twente	13	4	4	5	-1	+1.6	16
7	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	4	6	-3	-2.8	16
8	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	2	7	-6	-2.6	14
9	For Sittard	14	3	5	6	-7	-6.8	14
10	Nijmegen	12	4	1	7	-6	-5.3	13
11	Willem II	13	3	3	7	-12	-14.2	12
12	Almere City	14	2	4	8	-12	-11.6	10
13	Zwolle	13	1	6	6	-11	-15.2	9
14	Heracles	13	2	3	8	-18	-17.8	9
15	Groningen	14	2	3	9	-19	-11.5	9
16	NAC Breda	13	2	2	9	-17	-14.5	8
17	Waalwijk	14	1	4	9	-16	-13.4	7
18	Heerenveen	13	2	1	10	-17	-8.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.