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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Heerenveen

S S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Waalwijk

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Waalwijk

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 21%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

50%

77%

Both score Ø 44%

33%

54%

Average goals

2,4

3,5

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,4

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,81 xG 1,14

48% Possession 52%

13 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 6

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 12. · Waalwijk 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+36	+20.6	36
2	Utrecht	12	10	1	1	+10	-1.3	31
3	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+16	+13.6	29
4	Feyenoord	13	8	4	1	+18	+14.2	28
5	Twente	13	7	4	2	+14	+12.5	25
6	Go Ahead Eagles	13	5	3	5	-2	+10.1	18
7	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	2	5	+2	+4.0	17
8	For Sittard	13	5	2	6	-4	+1.6	17
9	Nijmegen	13	5	1	7	+8	+2.0	16
10	Willem II	13	4	4	5	+1	-9.3	16
11	NAC Breda	13	5	1	7	-9	-6.0	16
12	Heerenveen	12	4	2	6	-5	-3.0	14
13	Heracles	13	3	4	6	-11	-10.9	13
14	Zwolle	13	3	3	7	-10	-11.9	12
15	Groningen	13	3	3	7	-12	-12.3	12
16	Sparta Rotterdam	13	2	5	6	-7	+0.7	11
17	Almere City	13	1	3	9	-24	-10.2	6
18	Waalwijk	13	1	2	10	-21	-14.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	6	6	0	0	+21	+11.9	18
2	Ajax	6	6	0	0	+12	+8.6	18
3	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+3	+2.4	15
4	Heerenveen	6	4	2	0	+8	+4.9	14
5	Feyenoord	6	4	1	1	+5	+7.7	13
6	Twente	6	3	3	0	+8	+9.2	12
7	For Sittard	7	4	0	3	+2	+3.2	12
8	NAC Breda	6	4	0	2	+2	+0.7	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	2	2	+2	+9.3	11
10	Nijmegen	7	3	1	3	+7	+4.2	10
11	Heracles	7	2	3	2	+0	-1.4	9
12	Zwolle	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.5	9
13	Groningen	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.8	8
14	Willem II	7	2	2	3	+1	-2.5	8
15	AZ Alkmaar	5	1	1	3	-2	+3.0	4
16	Sparta Rotterdam	7	0	4	3	-5	+3.8	4
17	Waalwijk	7	1	1	5	-8	-5.9	4
18	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-15	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	6	0	1	+15	+8.8	18
2	Utrecht	6	5	1	0	+7	-3.7	16
3	Feyenoord	7	4	3	0	+13	+6.6	15
4	Twente	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.4	13
5	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.0	13
6	Ajax	6	3	2	1	+4	+5.0	11
7	Willem II	6	2	2	2	+0	-6.8	8
8	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	1	3	-2	-3.2	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.8	7
10	Nijmegen	6	2	0	4	+1	-2.2	6
11	For Sittard	6	1	2	3	-6	-1.6	5
12	NAC Breda	7	1	1	5	-11	-6.7	4
13	Heracles	6	1	1	4	-11	-9.5	4
14	Groningen	7	1	1	5	-14	-10.5	4
15	Zwolle	7	0	3	4	-10	-10.4	3
16	Almere City	6	0	2	4	-9	-7.4	2
17	Waalwijk	6	0	1	5	-13	-8.7	1
18	Heerenveen	6	0	0	6	-13	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.