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Eredivisie
Referee: D Makkelie
Nijmegen
S U T S T
1–1
Full-time
Willem II
T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Willem II
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,3
0,7
Conceded
1,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 29/30 matches
Win Ø 26%
31%
20%
Points per game
1,1
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
59%
43%
Both score Ø 49%
48%
50%
Average goals
2,9
2,7
Scored
1,4
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,83 xG 0,56
50% Possession 50%
21 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 3
0 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nijmegen 13. · Willem II 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ajax 31 23 5 3 +36 +31.0 74
2 PSV Eindhoven 30 21 4 5 +55 +40.4 67
3 Feyenoord 30 18 8 4 +36 +24.2 62
4 Utrecht 31 18 8 5 +19 +4.1 62
5 Go Ahead Eagles 30 13 8 9 +6 +8.7 47
6 Twente 28 12 9 7 +11 +12.7 45
7 AZ Alkmaar 28 11 8 9 +5 +11.3 41
8 Heerenveen 30 11 7 12 -6 -1.0 40
9 For Sittard 30 10 6 14 -15 -6.0 36
10 Sparta Rotterdam 30 8 11 11 -3 -0.2 35
11 Groningen 30 9 8 13 -13 -8.6 35
12 Heracles 30 8 11 11 -15 -15.5 35
13 Nijmegen 29 9 6 14 +0 +0.2 33
14 NAC Breda 30 8 8 14 -18 -16.2 32
15 Zwolle 30 7 10 13 -13 -21.4 31
16 Willem II 30 6 6 18 -20 -26.7 24
17 Almere City 31 4 8 19 -38 -16.3 20
18 Waalwijk 30 4 7 19 -27 -20.5 19

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nijmegen Willem II
1′
C. Verdonk 1–0
own goal
Kodai Sano 🟨
37′
K. Shiogai 🔁
↦ D. Proper
41′
Half-time 1–0
B. Linssen 🔁
↦ S. Hansen
46′
S. Ouaissa 🔁
↦ K. Ogawa
46′
B. Önal 🔁
↦ L. Olden Larsen
64′
64′
🔁 A. Fatah
↦ R. Meerveld
75′
🔁 D. Kaygin
↦ B. Lambert
82′
🔁 N. Doodeman
↦ E. Kehrer
2–0 K. Shiogai
T. Ouwejan
83′
Sami Ouaissa 🟨
84′
84′
🟨 Rob Nizet
B. Pereira 🔁
↦ L. Lyratzis
84′
93′
🟨 Amine Lachkar
97′
🟥 Raffael Behounek
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Nijmegen

4-2-3-1
22 R. Roefs G
19 L. Lyratzis D
4 Iván Márquez D
24 C. Verdonk D
5 T. Ouwejan D
71 D. Proper M
14 L. Olden Larsen M
10 S. Hansen M
32 V. van Crooij M
23 K. Sano M
18 K. Ogawa F
Bench (10)
9 K. Shiogai
30 B. Linssen
25 S. Ouaissa
11 B. Önal
2 B. Pereira
20 L. Schöne
1 S. van Gassel
33 Y. Sbai
31 R. Janse
8 A. Darelas

Coach: R. Meijer

Willem II

4-3-3
1 T. Didillon-Hödl G
33 T. St. Jago D
30 R. Behounek D
4 E. Schouten D
22 R. Nizet D
8 J. Bosch M
6 B. Lambert M
34 A. Lachkar M
11 E. Kehrer F
9 K. Vaesen F
16 R. Meerveld F
Bench (12)
21 A. Fatah
77 D. Kaygin
7 N. Doodeman
19 Y. Sylla
41 M. Schut
24 C. van den Berg
51 U. van Aalst
15 M. Pivaš
17 P. Joosten
50 P. van Loon
48 J. Mathijsen
18 J. Bokila

Coach: K. Aelbrecht

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,57
U ✓
4,21
B
5,27
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,68
U2,5 ✓
2,15
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.