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Serie A

Referee: D Massa

Lecce

T U T T U

0–1

Full-time

Napoli

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 42%

18%

65%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

47%

Both score Ø 43%

41%

44%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,6

Conceded

1,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,33 xG 0,58

45% Possession 55%

9 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 4

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 17. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	34	22	8	4	+29	+20.0	74
2	Inter	34	21	8	5	+39	+30.6	71
3	Atalanta	34	19	8	7	+36	+24.5	65
4	Juventus	34	16	14	4	+20	+13.9	62
5	Bologna	34	16	13	5	+15	+13.1	61
6	Roma	34	17	9	8	+17	+12.5	60
7	Lazio	34	17	9	8	+12	+14.4	60
8	Fiorentina	34	17	8	9	+19	+5.6	59
9	Milan	34	15	9	10	+15	+19.4	54
10	Como	35	12	9	14	-3	+0.9	45
11	Torino	35	10	14	11	-1	-13.6	44
12	Udinese	35	12	8	15	-11	-9.6	44
13	Genoa	34	9	12	13	-12	-8.1	39
14	Cagliari	35	8	9	18	-15	-11.1	33
15	Parma	35	6	14	15	-14	-13.9	32
16	Verona	34	9	5	20	-32	-18.6	32
17	Lecce	34	6	9	19	-32	-22.5	27
18	Venezia	35	4	14	17	-21	-19.0	26
19	Empoli	34	4	13	17	-27	-16.8	25
20	Monza	34	2	9	23	-34	-21.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	13	2	2	+17	+15.2	41
2	Inter	17	12	3	2	+18	+14.7	39
3	Juventus	18	10	7	1	+14	+9.4	37
4	Fiorentina	18	11	4	3	+13	+8.5	37
5	Bologna	17	10	6	1	+17	+14.8	36
6	Roma	17	11	2	4	+19	+10.5	35
7	Atalanta	17	8	5	4	+12	+11.1	29
8	Lazio	17	7	8	2	+8	+10.7	29
9	Milan	17	7	7	3	+10	+9.5	28
10	Como	17	7	5	5	+2	+2.1	26
11	Torino	17	6	7	4	+3	-5.0	25
12	Udinese	17	7	3	7	-3	-5.1	24
13	Genoa	17	5	7	5	-2	-1.9	22
14	Parma	18	5	5	8	-3	-0.9	20
15	Cagliari	18	5	4	9	-7	-2.2	19
16	Venezia	17	4	5	8	-5	-2.4	17
17	Lecce	17	3	6	8	-18	-8.4	15
18	Verona	17	4	3	10	-21	-5.9	15
19	Empoli	16	1	7	8	-15	-7.8	10
20	Monza	17	1	5	11	-12	-6.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	17	11	3	3	+24	+13.4	36
2	Napoli	17	9	6	2	+12	+4.7	33
3	Inter	17	9	5	3	+21	+15.8	32
4	Lazio	17	10	1	6	+4	+3.7	31
5	Milan	17	8	2	7	+5	+9.9	26
6	Juventus	16	6	7	3	+6	+4.6	25
7	Bologna	17	6	7	4	-2	-1.7	25
8	Roma	17	6	7	4	-2	+2.0	25
9	Fiorentina	16	6	4	6	+6	-2.9	22
10	Udinese	18	5	5	8	-8	-4.5	20
11	Torino	18	4	7	7	-4	-8.6	19
12	Como	18	5	4	9	-5	-1.2	19
13	Genoa	17	4	5	8	-10	-6.2	17
14	Verona	17	5	2	10	-11	-12.6	17
15	Empoli	18	3	6	9	-12	-9.0	15
16	Cagliari	17	3	5	9	-8	-8.8	14
17	Parma	17	1	9	7	-11	-13.0	12
18	Lecce	17	3	3	11	-14	-14.2	12
19	Venezia	18	0	9	9	-16	-16.6	9
20	Monza	17	1	4	12	-22	-14.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.