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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Alaves
T S T U S
0–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 41%
24%
58%
Points per game
1,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
42%
42%
Both score Ø 50%
52%
48%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
1,1
1,7
Conceded
1,4
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,50 xG 0,54
35% Possession 65%
8 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
18 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Alaves 17. · Ath Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 33 24 4 5 +57 +43.2 76
2 Real Madrid 33 22 6 5 +35 +27.6 72
3 Ath Madrid 33 19 9 5 +29 +24.3 66
4 Ath Bilbao 33 16 12 5 +24 +16.2 60
5 Villarreal 33 15 10 8 +11 +17.3 55
6 Betis 33 15 9 9 +9 +10.8 54
7 Celta 33 13 7 13 +1 +12.1 46
8 Osasuna 33 10 14 9 -6 -8.7 44
9 Vallecano 34 11 11 12 -6 -4.3 44
10 Mallorca 33 12 8 13 -7 -2.1 44
11 Sociedad 33 12 6 15 -5 +0.7 42
12 Getafe 34 10 9 15 +0 -5.4 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 -7 -21.8 39
14 Valencia 33 9 12 12 -12 -8.1 39
15 Sevilla 33 9 10 14 -9 -8.2 37
16 Girona 33 9 8 16 -12 -4.4 35
17 Alaves 33 8 10 15 -11 -4.0 34
18 Las Palmas 33 8 8 17 -15 -29.1 32
19 Leganes 33 6 12 15 -19 -25.0 30
20 Valladolid 33 4 4 25 -57 -31.2 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Alaves Ath Madrid
-5′
🟨 César Azpilicueta
Ander Guevara 🟨
28′
41′
🟥 Julián Álvarez
VAR: Red card cancelled
42′
🟨 Julián Álvarez
Half-time 0–0
Santiago Mouriño 🟨
56′
59′
🔁 A. Sørloth
↦ A. Griezmann
60′
🔁 Samuel Lino
↦ G. Simeone
Antonio Blanco 🟨
63′
67′
🔁 Koke
↦ R. De Paul
Joan Jordán 🔁
↦ Ander Guevara
72′
C. Benavídez 🔁
↦ Jon Guridi
72′
72′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ C. Gallagher
72′
🔁 Á. Correa
↦ Pablo Barrios
T. Conechny 🔁
↦ Carles Aleñá
89′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Alaves

4-2-3-1
1 Antonio Sivera G
14 N. Tenaglia D
2 F. Garcés D
12 S. Mouriño D
3 Manu Sánchez D
8 Antonio Blanco M
6 Ander Guevara M
7 Carlos Vicente M
18 Jon Guridi M
21 Carles Aleñá M
17 Kike García F
Bench (12)
24 Joan Jordán
23 C. Benavídez
10 T. Conechny
4 A. Sedlar
11 Toni Martínez
13 Jesús Owono
22 M. Diarra
9 Asier Villalibre
15 Carlos Martín
16 Hugo Novoa
19 Pau Cabanes
36 Adrián Pica

Coach: E. Coudet

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 Marcos Llorente D
24 Robin Le Normand D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 Javi Galán D
22 G. Simeone M
5 R. De Paul M
8 Pablo Barrios M
4 C. Gallagher M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
9 A. Sørloth
12 Samuel Lino
6 Koke
16 N. Molina
10 Á. Correa
3 César Azpilicueta
2 J. Giménez
23 Reinildo
20 A. Witsel
1 J. Musso
11 T. Lemar
31 Antonio Gomis

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,76
U ✓
3,15
B
2,14
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,52
U2,5 ✓
1,52
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.