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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

RB Leipzig

T S S U T

3–3

Full-time

Bayern Munich

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 58%

42%

74%

Points per game

1,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

55%

77%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

55%

Average goals

2,9

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,9

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,90 xG 1,56

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	23	6	2	+61	+52.7	75
2	Leverkusen	31	19	10	2	+31	+22.6	67
3	Ein Frankfurt	31	16	7	8	+20	+14.5	55
4	Freiburg	31	15	6	10	-3	+1.4	51
5	RB Leipzig	31	13	10	8	+6	-6.2	49
6	Dortmund	31	14	6	11	+11	+17.4	48
7	Mainz	31	13	8	10	+9	-1.2	47
8	Werder Bremen	31	13	7	11	-6	+1.8	46
9	M'gladbach	31	13	5	13	+1	-9.5	44
10	Augsburg	31	11	10	10	-9	-13.4	43
11	Stuttgart	31	11	8	12	+5	+8.9	41
12	Wolfsburg	31	10	9	12	+5	-3.2	39
13	Union Berlin	31	9	10	12	-12	-9.7	37
14	St Pauli	31	8	7	16	-10	-7.6	31
15	Hoffenheim	31	7	9	15	-18	-14.4	30
16	Heidenheim	32	7	5	20	-27	-15.8	26
17	Holstein Kiel	31	5	7	19	-29	-17.5	22
18	Bochum	32	4	8	20	-35	-20.9	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+35	+33.8	41
2	Leverkusen	16	10	4	2	+16	+15.3	34
3	Ein Frankfurt	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.0	33
4	Dortmund	15	9	3	3	+18	+14.5	30
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.8	29
6	Freiburg	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.6	29
7	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.9	24
8	M'gladbach	15	7	2	6	+4	-0.4	23
9	Augsburg	15	6	5	4	+1	+1.6	23
10	Union Berlin	15	5	6	4	+0	+2.1	21
11	Stuttgart	16	6	2	8	+4	+12.0	20
12	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-5	+4.5	20
13	Hoffenheim	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Wolfsburg	16	3	6	7	-3	+0.1	15
15	St Pauli	15	3	5	7	-6	+1.6	14
16	Holstein Kiel	16	4	2	10	-16	-6.4	14
17	Bochum	16	3	4	9	-14	-2.9	13
18	Heidenheim	16	3	2	11	-17	-7.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	4	1	+26	+18.9	34
2	Leverkusen	15	9	6	0	+15	+7.3	33
3	Werder Bremen	15	8	2	5	-1	-2.7	26
4	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	-3.3	24
5	Mainz	16	7	2	7	+3	-6.1	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+1	-2.5	22
7	Freiburg	16	6	4	6	-11	-0.1	22
8	Stuttgart	15	5	6	4	+1	-3.1	21
9	M'gladbach	16	6	3	7	-3	-9.1	21
10	RB Leipzig	16	5	5	6	-5	-10.1	20
11	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	-10	-15.0	20
12	Dortmund	16	5	3	8	-7	+2.9	18
13	St Pauli	16	5	2	9	-4	-9.1	17
14	Union Berlin	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.8	16
15	Heidenheim	16	4	3	9	-10	-8.6	15
16	Hoffenheim	15	3	4	8	-11	-11.0	13
17	Holstein Kiel	15	1	5	9	-13	-11.1	8
18	Bochum	16	1	4	11	-21	-17.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.