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Bundesliga

Referee: F Brych

Dortmund

T U S S S

4–0

Full-time

Wolfsburg

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Wolfsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,5

2,2

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 39%

45%

32%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

68%

58%

Both score Ø 71%

71%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

1,9

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,43 xG 0,70

55% Possession 45%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 6. · Wolfsburg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	23	7	2	+61	+53.4	76
2	Leverkusen	31	19	10	2	+31	+22.6	67
3	Ein Frankfurt	31	16	7	8	+20	+14.5	55
4	Freiburg	31	15	6	10	-3	+1.4	51
5	RB Leipzig	32	13	11	8	+6	-6.9	50
6	Dortmund	31	14	6	11	+11	+17.4	48
7	Mainz	31	13	8	10	+9	-1.2	47
8	Werder Bremen	32	13	8	11	-6	+1.8	47
9	M'gladbach	32	13	6	13	+1	-9.9	45
10	Stuttgart	32	12	8	12	+6	+11.5	44
11	Augsburg	31	11	10	10	-9	-13.4	43
12	Wolfsburg	31	10	9	12	+5	-3.2	39
13	Union Berlin	32	9	11	12	-12	-9.7	38
14	St Pauli	32	8	7	17	-11	-10.2	31
15	Hoffenheim	32	7	10	15	-18	-14.0	31
16	Heidenheim	32	7	5	20	-27	-15.8	26
17	Holstein Kiel	31	5	7	19	-29	-17.5	22
18	Bochum	32	4	8	20	-35	-20.9	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+35	+33.8	41
2	Leverkusen	16	10	4	2	+16	+15.3	34
3	Ein Frankfurt	16	10	3	3	+19	+17.0	33
4	Dortmund	15	9	3	3	+18	+14.5	30
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	6	2	+11	+3.2	30
6	Freiburg	15	9	2	4	+8	+1.6	29
7	Mainz	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.9	24
8	M'gladbach	16	7	3	6	+4	-0.8	24
9	Augsburg	15	6	5	4	+1	+1.6	23
10	Union Berlin	16	5	7	4	+0	+2.1	22
11	Stuttgart	16	6	2	8	+4	+12.0	20
12	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-5	+4.5	20
13	Hoffenheim	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Wolfsburg	16	3	6	7	-3	+0.1	15
15	St Pauli	16	3	5	8	-7	-1.0	14
16	Holstein Kiel	16	4	2	10	-16	-6.4	14
17	Bochum	16	3	4	9	-14	-2.9	13
18	Heidenheim	16	3	2	11	-17	-7.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	10	5	1	+26	+19.6	35
2	Leverkusen	15	9	6	0	+15	+7.3	33
3	Werder Bremen	16	8	3	5	-1	-2.7	27
4	Wolfsburg	15	7	3	5	+8	-3.3	24
5	Stuttgart	16	6	6	4	+2	-0.5	24
6	Mainz	16	7	2	7	+3	-6.1	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+1	-2.5	22
8	Freiburg	16	6	4	6	-11	-0.1	22
9	M'gladbach	16	6	3	7	-3	-9.1	21
10	RB Leipzig	16	5	5	6	-5	-10.1	20
11	Augsburg	16	5	5	6	-10	-15.0	20
12	Dortmund	16	5	3	8	-7	+2.9	18
13	St Pauli	16	5	2	9	-4	-9.1	17
14	Union Berlin	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.8	16
15	Heidenheim	16	4	3	9	-10	-8.6	15
16	Hoffenheim	16	3	5	8	-11	-10.6	14
17	Holstein Kiel	15	1	5	9	-13	-11.1	8
18	Bochum	16	1	4	11	-21	-17.9	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.