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Eredivisie
Referee: D Higler
Utrecht
U S T S S
0–0
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
5,2
3,3
Scored
3,3
2,2
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 18/16 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
72%
69%
Both score Ø 71%
78%
63%
Average goals
3,6
2,6
Scored
2,0
1,4
Conceded
1,6
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,83 xG 1,14
42% Possession 58%
9 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 6
11 Free kicks against 13
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Utrecht 3. · AZ Alkmaar 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 19 15 1 3 +44 +26.1 46
2 Ajax 18 13 3 2 +22 +12.9 42
3 Utrecht 18 12 3 3 +7 +0.6 39
4 Feyenoord 18 10 5 3 +18 +18.9 35
5 Twente 17 10 4 3 +16 +14.9 34
6 Go Ahead Eagles 18 8 4 6 +6 +11.2 28
7 AZ Alkmaar 16 8 3 5 +5 +6.5 27
8 For Sittard 18 7 4 7 -3 -0.3 25
9 Heerenveen 17 7 3 7 -4 -1.7 24
10 Willem II 18 6 4 8 -2 -14.7 22
11 NAC Breda 18 7 1 10 -10 -8.1 22
12 Nijmegen 18 6 2 10 +0 +4.5 20
13 Zwolle 19 5 5 9 -9 -15.4 20
14 Groningen 17 4 5 8 -12 -10.5 17
15 Heracles 17 3 6 8 -15 -15.0 15
16 Sparta Rotterdam 18 2 7 9 -12 +0.8 13
17 Almere City 18 2 4 12 -27 -13.5 10
18 Waalwijk 18 1 4 13 -24 -17.2 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Utrecht AZ Alkmaar
35′
🟨 Alexandre Penetra
Half-time 0–0
A. Blake 🔁
↦ M. Jonathans
64′
70′
🔁 Z. Buurmeester
↦ M. Lahdo
70′
🔁 D. Kasius
↦ E. Poku
70′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ T. Parrott
81′
🔁 J. Addai
↦ D. Kasius
V. Jensen 🔁
↦ J. Toornstra
86′
D. Min 🔁
↦ S. Haller
86′
87′
🔁 M. de Wit
↦ D. Møller Wolfe
89′
🟨 Mexx Meerdink
94′
🟨 Jayden Addai
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Utrecht

4-2-3-1
1 V. Barkas G
2 S. Horemans D
3 M. van der Hoorn D
24 N. Viergever D
16 S. El Karouani D
14 Zidane Iqbal M
21 P. Aaronson M
26 M. Jonathans M
18 J. Toornstra M
20 Y. Cathline M
91 S. Haller F
Bench (12)
15 A. Blake
7 V. Jensen
9 D. Min
40 M. Didden
6 O. Fraulo
22 Miguel Rodríguez
5 K. Finnsson
46 S. Andersen
19 A. Descotte
27 A. Engwanda
32 T. de Graaff
25 M. Brouwer

Coach: R. Jans

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
16 S. Maikuma D
3 W. Goes D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
8 J. Clasie M
21 E. Poku M
10 S. Mijnans M
23 M. Lahdo M
9 T. Parrott F
Bench (12)
28 Z. Buurmeester
30 D. Kasius
35 M. Meerdink
17 J. Addai
34 M. de Wit
4 B. Martins Indi
26 K. Smit
22 M. Dekker
12 H. Verhulst
41 J. Zoet
27 R. Daal
14 K. Belić

Coach: M. Martens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,80
U ✓
3,39
B
2,43
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,75
U2,5 ✓
2,04
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Higler · 133 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.