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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Lyon

T S S T U

0–0

Full-time

Toulouse

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 44%

47%

41%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 47%

53%

41%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,74 xG 1,23

62% Possession 38%

11 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 6. · Toulouse 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	14	4	0	+32	+30.8	46
2	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+19	+3.1	36
3	Lille	18	8	8	2	+11	+5.7	32
4	Monaco	18	9	4	5	+9	+19.0	31
5	Nice	18	8	6	4	+11	+10.9	30
6	Lyon	17	8	4	5	+7	+6.3	28
7	Lens	18	7	6	5	+4	+7.1	27
8	Brest	18	8	1	9	-3	-10.4	25
9	Toulouse	17	7	3	7	+0	+7.7	24
10	Strasbourg	17	6	5	6	+1	-5.2	23
11	Auxerre	17	6	4	7	-2	-9.9	22
12	Reims	17	5	5	7	-2	-6.9	20
13	Angers	17	5	4	8	-8	-3.4	19
14	Rennes	18	5	2	11	-3	+1.1	17
15	Nantes	17	3	7	7	-7	-8.6	16
16	St Etienne	17	5	1	11	-21	-17.9	16
17	Le Havre	17	4	0	13	-23	-14.6	12
18	Montpellier	18	3	3	12	-25	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+19	+17.3	25
2	Brest	9	6	1	2	+9	+1.0	19
3	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
4	Auxerre	9	5	3	1	+7	-0.3	18
5	Lille	9	5	3	1	+5	-0.3	18
6	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	+11.1	17
7	Rennes	10	5	1	4	+9	+6.0	16
8	Lyon	8	5	1	2	+5	+4.5	16
9	Strasbourg	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.6	15
10	St Etienne	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.7	15
11	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	+5.4	14
12	Marseille	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.3	12
13	Montpellier	10	3	3	4	-8	-3.4	12
14	Lens	9	3	2	4	-1	+4.9	11
15	Nantes	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.0	9
16	Reims	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.0	9
17	Angers	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
18	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-15	-8.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	9	8	0	1	+17	+0.8	24
2	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+13	+13.5	21
3	Lens	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.2	16
4	Lille	9	3	5	1	+6	+6.0	14
5	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+5	+8.0	14
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Nice	10	3	3	4	-1	+2.9	12
8	Angers	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.4	12
9	Reims	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.9	11
10	Toulouse	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.3	10
11	Strasbourg	9	2	2	5	-4	-5.9	8
12	Nantes	9	1	4	4	-6	-8.6	7
13	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-8	-6.0	6
14	Brest	9	2	0	7	-12	-11.4	6
15	Auxerre	8	1	1	6	-9	-9.6	4
16	Rennes	8	0	1	7	-12	-4.9	1
17	St Etienne	9	0	1	8	-23	-19.6	1
18	Montpellier	8	0	0	8	-17	-11.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.