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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Guimaraes

U U U U T

2–2

Full-time

Arouca

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,2

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 30%

35%

24%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 47%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,13 xG 1,65

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 19

7 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 6. · Arouca 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	14	2	2	+37	+32.9	44
2	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+31	+22.6	41
3	Porto	17	13	1	3	+29	+18.8	40
4	Sp Braga	17	9	4	4	+11	+11.6	31
5	Santa Clara	18	10	1	7	+1	+9.9	31
6	Guimaraes	17	6	7	4	+4	+6.5	25
7	Casa Pia	17	6	6	5	-1	-3.1	24
8	Moreirense	17	6	4	7	-3	+0.4	22
9	Estoril	18	5	6	7	-9	-15.5	21
10	Famalicao	18	4	8	6	-4	-8.6	20
11	Rio Ave	18	5	5	8	-13	-15.0	20
12	Gil Vicente	17	4	7	6	-7	-6.7	19
13	Nacional	17	4	4	9	-10	-2.8	16
14	Estrela	17	4	4	9	-13	-10.0	16
15	AVS	17	2	9	6	-11	-8.6	15
16	Arouca	17	4	3	10	-15	-11.2	15
17	Farense	17	3	5	9	-12	-15.2	14
18	Boavista	17	2	6	9	-15	-5.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
2	Porto	9	9	0	0	+23	+18.7	27
3	Sp Lisbon	8	7	0	1	+14	+13.0	21
4	Santa Clara	10	6	1	3	+1	+9.5	19
5	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
6	Guimaraes	8	4	3	1	+4	+4.4	15
7	Moreirense	8	4	3	1	+2	-1.8	15
8	Estrela	9	4	2	3	-1	-3.5	14
9	Gil Vicente	8	3	4	1	+5	+0.4	13
10	Casa Pia	9	3	4	2	+2	+1.2	13
11	Nacional	8	4	1	3	-3	-1.6	13
12	Sp Braga	9	3	3	3	+3	+9.5	12
13	Estoril	9	3	3	3	-3	-6.7	12
14	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-0.7	10
15	AVS	9	2	4	3	-5	-6.5	10
16	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.8	8
17	Farense	8	2	1	5	-7	-5.2	7
18	Boavista	8	0	3	5	-10	-2.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	8	6	1	1	+8	+2.1	19
3	Benfica	8	4	2	2	+5	+5.2	14
4	Porto	8	4	1	3	+6	+0.1	13
5	Santa Clara	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.4	12
6	Casa Pia	8	3	2	3	-3	-4.3	11
7	Guimaraes	9	2	4	3	+0	+2.2	10
8	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	-2	-7.9	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	-5	-3.6	9
10	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.8	9
11	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-5	+2.2	7
12	Farense	9	1	4	4	-5	-10.0	7
13	Arouca	9	2	1	6	-10	-4.5	7
14	Gil Vicente	9	1	3	5	-12	-7.2	6
15	AVS	8	0	5	3	-6	-2.1	5
16	Rio Ave	9	1	1	7	-14	-13.3	4
17	Nacional	9	0	3	6	-7	-1.2	3
18	Estrela	8	0	2	6	-12	-6.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.