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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

PSV Eindhoven

S T T S S

2–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

4,5

2,8

Scored

3,7

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/15 matches

Win Ø 71%

88%

53%

Points per game

2,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

82%

67%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

4,2

2,5

Scored

3,5

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,15 xG 1,42

79% Possession 21%

18 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · AZ Alkmaar 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	15	0	2	+46	+23.3	45
2	Ajax	18	13	3	2	+22	+12.9	42
3	Utrecht	17	11	3	3	+6	+1.1	36
4	Feyenoord	17	10	5	2	+19	+18.3	35
5	Twente	16	9	4	3	+12	+12.6	31
6	Go Ahead Eagles	18	8	4	6	+6	+11.2	28
7	AZ Alkmaar	15	8	2	5	+5	+7.3	26
8	For Sittard	18	7	4	7	-3	-0.3	25
9	Willem II	17	6	4	7	+2	-12.4	22
10	NAC Breda	17	7	1	9	-8	-7.7	22
11	Heerenveen	16	6	3	7	-6	-2.1	21
12	Nijmegen	18	6	2	10	+0	+4.5	20
13	Zwolle	18	4	5	9	-11	-13.4	17
14	Groningen	16	4	4	8	-12	-11.6	16
15	Heracles	17	3	6	8	-15	-15.0	15
16	Sparta Rotterdam	18	2	7	9	-12	+0.8	13
17	Almere City	17	2	3	12	-27	-12.5	9
18	Waalwijk	18	1	4	13	-24	-17.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	9	8	1	0	+16	+11.1	25
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+29	+13.4	24
3	Twente	8	5	3	0	+11	+10.8	18
4	Heerenveen	8	5	3	0	+9	+4.6	18
5	Go Ahead Eagles	9	5	2	2	+8	+12.1	17
6	Feyenoord	8	5	2	1	+8	+10.4	17
7	Utrecht	9	5	1	3	-3	+4.0	16
8	NAC Breda	8	5	0	3	+2	+0.3	15
9	For Sittard	9	5	0	4	+0	+2.5	15
10	Groningen	8	3	3	2	+4	-0.3	12
11	Zwolle	9	4	0	5	-1	-1.4	12
12	Nijmegen	9	3	2	4	+6	+7.4	11
13	Willem II	9	3	2	4	+3	-3.7	11
14	Heracles	9	2	5	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	AZ Alkmaar	7	3	1	3	+0	+5.5	10
16	Almere City	9	2	1	6	-14	-3.3	7
17	Waalwijk	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.0	5
18	Sparta Rotterdam	9	0	4	5	-9	+2.7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	7	0	2	+17	+9.9	21
2	Utrecht	8	6	2	0	+9	-2.8	20
3	Feyenoord	9	5	3	1	+11	+7.9	18
4	Ajax	9	5	2	2	+6	+1.8	17
5	AZ Alkmaar	8	5	1	2	+5	+1.8	16
6	Twente	8	4	1	3	+1	+1.7	13
7	Willem II	8	3	2	3	-1	-8.7	11
8	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	2	4	-2	-0.8	11
9	For Sittard	9	2	4	3	-3	-2.8	10
10	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.9	9
11	Nijmegen	9	3	0	6	-6	-2.9	9
12	NAC Breda	9	2	1	6	-10	-8.0	7
13	Zwolle	9	0	5	4	-10	-12.0	5
14	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-15	-12.7	4
15	Groningen	8	1	1	6	-16	-11.2	4
16	Heerenveen	8	1	0	7	-15	-6.7	3
17	Almere City	8	0	2	6	-13	-9.2	2
18	Waalwijk	9	0	2	7	-15	-11.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.