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Europa League
Referee: K Tohver
Ludogorets
T U T T U
2–2
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,7
2,7
Scored
0,5
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/5 matches
Win Ø 35%
29%
40%
Points per game
1,1
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
43%
40%
Both score Ø 45%
29%
60%
Average goals
2,0
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,4
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,98 xG 2,56
50% Possession 50%
14 Shots 18
3 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 11
0 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ludogorets AZ Alkmaar
13′
⚽ R. van Bommel 0–1
19′
⚽ S. Maikuma 0–2
Half-time 0–2
48′
🟨 Wouter Goes
49′
🟨 Peer Koopmeiners
1–2 I. Chochev ⚽
Erick Marcus
60′
2–2 K. Duah ⚽
Erick Marcus
63′
66′
🟨 David Möller Wolfe
70′
🔁 M. Meerdink
↦ T. Parrott
70′
🔁 Z. Buurmeester
↦ P. Koopmeiners
Rwan Cruz 🔁
↦ K. Duah
78′
A. Witry 🔁
↦ O. Verdon
78′
79′
🔁 R. Daal
↦ R. van Bommel
79′
🔁 M. Lahdo
↦ E. Poku
Ivajlo Chochev 🟨
84′
A. Camara 🔁
↦ Erick Marcus
87′
I. Yordanov 🔁
↦ J. Piotrowski
87′
Pedro Naressi 🟨
88′
88′
🔁 D. Kasius
↦ S. Maikuma
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-3-3
1 S. Padt G
15 E. Kurtulus D
24 O. Verdon D
4 Dinis Almeida D
14 D. Gropper D
18 I. Chochev M
30 Pedro Naressi M
6 J. Piotrowski M
77 Erick Marcus F
9 K. Duah F
7 Rick F
Bench (10)
12 Rwan Cruz
16 A. Witry
20 A. Camara
82 I. Yordanov
39 H. Bonmann
3 A. Nedyalkov
17 Son
67 D. Hristov
5 G. Terziev
19 G. Rusev

Coach: I. Jovičević

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 R. Owusu-Oduro G
16 S. Maikuma D
3 W. Goes D
5 Alexandre Penetra D
18 D. Møller Wolfe D
6 P. Koopmeiners M
10 S. Mijnans M
8 J. Clasie M
21 E. Poku F
9 T. Parrott F
7 R. van Bommel F
Bench (12)
35 M. Meerdink
28 Z. Buurmeester
37 R. Daal
23 M. Lahdo
30 D. Kasius
34 M. de Wit
41 J. Zoet
12 H. Verhulst
4 B. Martins Indi
11 I. Sadiq
22 M. Dekker
33 D. Kwakman

Coach: M. Martens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

K Tohver · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.