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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Leeds

T T T T T

0–3

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

4,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

3,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-2,7

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

19%

38%

Points per game

0,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

63%

58%

Both score Ø 55%

59%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

2,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

4 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

3 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 16. · Aston Villa 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	28	22	3	3	+50	69
2	Liverpool	27	19	6	2	+51	63
3	Chelsea	27	16	8	3	+37	56
4	Arsenal	25	15	3	7	+12	48
5	Man United	28	13	8	7	+7	47
6	West Ham	28	13	6	9	+11	45
7	Tottenham	26	14	3	9	+8	45
8	Wolves	28	13	4	11	+5	43
9	Southampton	28	8	11	9	-8	35
10	Crystal Palace	28	7	12	9	+1	33
11	Aston Villa	26	10	3	13	+0	33
12	Leicester	25	9	6	10	-3	33
13	Brighton	27	7	12	8	-6	33
14	Newcastle	27	7	10	10	-15	31
15	Brentford	28	7	6	15	-15	27
16	Leeds	27	5	8	14	-32	23
17	Everton	25	6	4	15	-18	22
18	Burnley	26	3	12	11	-14	21
19	Watford	28	5	4	19	-27	19
20	Norwich	28	4	5	19	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+30	36
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	13	9	2	2	+12	29
4	Tottenham	13	8	1	4	+8	25
5	West Ham	14	7	3	4	+6	24
6	Man United	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
8	Southampton	14	5	7	2	+7	22
9	Leicester	13	6	3	4	+4	21
10	Wolves	14	6	2	6	+2	20
11	Crystal Palace	14	4	6	4	+5	18
12	Aston Villa	13	5	3	5	+4	18
13	Newcastle	14	4	6	4	-5	18
14	Everton	12	5	1	6	+0	16
15	Brentford	14	4	2	8	-5	14
16	Brighton	13	3	5	5	-6	14
17	Leeds	13	3	4	6	-10	13
18	Burnley	13	2	6	5	-6	12
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	11	2	1	+20	35
2	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
3	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
4	Wolves	14	7	2	5	+3	23
5	Man United	14	6	5	3	+2	23
6	West Ham	14	6	3	5	+5	21
7	Tottenham	13	6	2	5	+0	20
8	Arsenal	12	6	1	5	+0	19
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
11	Aston Villa	13	5	0	8	-4	15
12	Brentford	14	3	4	7	-10	13
13	Newcastle	13	3	4	6	-10	13
14	Southampton	14	3	4	7	-15	13
15	Leicester	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Watford	14	3	3	8	-7	12
17	Leeds	14	2	4	8	-22	10
18	Burnley	13	1	6	6	-8	9
19	Norwich	13	2	2	9	-23	8
20	Everton	13	1	3	9	-18	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.