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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Aston Villa

S S S S T

1–0

Full-time

Man City

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 51%

38%

63%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,81 xG 1,18

47% Possession 53%

9 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 9

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+12	+9.3	19
2	Sunderland	9	5	2	2	+4	-1.8	17
3	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	+6.3	16
4	Man United	9	5	1	3	+1	+2.8	16
5	Bournemouth	8	4	3	1	+3	-0.3	15
6	Liverpool	9	5	0	4	+2	+4.1	15
7	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+7	-0.9	14
8	Chelsea	9	4	2	3	+6	+0.2	14
9	Crystal Palace	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.5	13
10	Brentford	9	4	1	4	+0	+1.4	13
11	Newcastle	9	3	3	3	+1	+4.9	12
12	Aston Villa	8	3	3	2	+0	-4.0	12
13	Brighton	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.4	12
14	Everton	8	3	2	3	+0	-1.5	11
15	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-5	+2.7	11
16	Fulham	9	2	2	5	-5	-3.9	8
17	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	-10.9	7
18	Nott'm Forest	8	1	2	5	-10	-5.4	5
19	West Ham	9	1	1	7	-13	-7.5	4
20	Wolves	8	0	2	6	-11	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man United	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.3	12
2	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+10	+6.7	10
3	Sunderland	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
4	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.2	10
5	Brentford	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
6	Man City	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.7	9
7	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.2	9
8	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	+3.7	9
9	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.7	8
10	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
11	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
12	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	-4.7	7
13	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.8	7
14	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.4	7
15	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
16	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+1	+4.8	6
17	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+1	+0.1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
19	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.8	1
20	West Ham	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	-1.0	10
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.6	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+6	-0.3	7
4	Man City	4	2	1	1	+4	+1.6	7
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
6	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.4	7
7	Liverpool	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.0	6
8	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
9	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
10	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.7	4
11	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.2	4
12	Man United	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.6	4
13	Newcastle	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.2	3
14	Brentford	4	1	0	3	-3	+0.9	3
15	Everton	4	1	0	3	-3	-2.3	3
16	Leeds	4	1	0	3	-6	-1.9	3
17	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-5	-4.7	2
18	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.4	1
19	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.1	1
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.