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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Cagliari

T T T T U

4–3

Full-time

Frosinone

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Frosinone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 61%

44%

78%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

0,6

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,63 xG 1,46

47% Possession 53%

24 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 20. · Frosinone 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+10	+10.7	23
2	Inter	9	7	1	1	+19	+11.6	22
3	Milan	9	7	0	2	+7	+4.0	21
4	Napoli	9	5	2	2	+10	+11.6	17
5	Fiorentina	9	5	2	2	+5	-1.7	17
6	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+7	+4.9	16
7	Bologna	10	3	6	1	+3	+2.2	15
8	Roma	9	4	2	3	+8	+6.3	14
9	Lazio	9	4	1	4	+0	-0.4	13
10	Lecce	10	3	4	3	-2	-6.6	13
11	Monza	9	3	3	3	+0	+1.0	12
12	Frosinone	9	3	3	3	-1	+0.3	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-5	-4.4	12
14	Genoa	10	3	2	5	-3	-3.8	11
15	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-4	-6.2	11
16	Verona	10	2	2	6	-6	-8.7	8
17	Empoli	9	2	1	6	-13	-4.7	7
18	Udinese	9	0	6	3	-8	-0.7	6
19	Salernitana	10	0	4	6	-14	-10.2	4
20	Cagliari	9	0	3	6	-13	-5.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.9	13
2	Inter	5	3	1	1	+9	+6.1	10
3	Roma	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.9	10
4	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+7	+3.3	10
5	Bologna	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.8	10
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.2	10
7	Lecce	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.1	10
8	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+3.5	9
9	Monza	4	2	2	0	+5	+4.9	8
10	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.5	7
11	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.9	7
12	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
13	Sassuolo	6	2	1	3	-1	-1.4	7
14	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+6.3	6
15	Torino	5	1	3	1	-2	-1.4	6
16	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
19	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-7	-2.9	3
20	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Milan	5	4	0	1	+2	+0.6	12
3	Napoli	5	3	2	0	+8	+5.3	11
4	Juventus	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.8	10
5	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+3	-3.2	10
6	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
7	Lazio	5	2	0	3	-2	-2.3	6
8	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.0	6
9	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
10	Roma	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
11	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
12	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.7	4
13	Verona	6	1	1	4	-4	-5.9	4
14	Monza	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.8	4
15	Lecce	4	0	3	1	-1	-5.5	3
16	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-3.7	3
17	Empoli	4	1	0	3	-10	-4.3	3
18	Frosinone	4	0	2	2	-3	+0.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	5	0	1	4	-7	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.