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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Heracles

U T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Excelsior

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

4,7

Scored

0,5

2,8

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,0

This season — Eredivisie · 35/3 matches

Win Ø 47%

26%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

40%

67%

Both score Ø 40%

46%

33%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

0,9

2,3

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	34	26	5	3	+79	83
2	PSV Eindhoven	34	26	3	5	+44	81
3	Feyenoord	34	22	5	7	+42	71
4	Twente	34	20	8	6	+18	68
5	AZ Alkmaar	31	15	6	10	+14	51
6	Utrecht	33	13	10	10	+8	49
7	Vitesse	31	14	4	13	-10	46
8	Heerenveen	33	12	8	13	-9	44
9	Cambuur	34	11	6	17	-17	39
10	Waalwijk	34	9	11	14	-11	38
11	Nijmegen	34	10	8	16	-14	38
12	Groningen	34	9	9	16	-14	36
13	Go Ahead Eagles	34	10	6	18	-14	36
14	Sparta Rotterdam	34	8	11	15	-18	35
15	For Sittard	34	10	5	19	-31	35
16	Heracles	35	9	7	19	-19	34
17	Willem II	34	9	6	19	-25	33
18	Zwolle	34	7	6	21	-26	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	14	1	2	+54	43
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	14	0	3	+27	42
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+22	36
4	Twente	17	10	5	2	+15	35
5	Utrecht	17	9	5	3	+14	32
6	AZ Alkmaar	15	9	3	3	+13	30
7	Heracles	17	7	5	5	+1	26
8	Heerenveen	17	7	3	7	+0	24
9	Willem II	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	1	9	+1	22
11	Waalwijk	17	6	3	8	-8	21
12	For Sittard	17	6	2	9	-11	20
13	Sparta Rotterdam	17	4	7	6	-5	19
14	Groningen	17	4	6	7	-3	18
15	Cambuur	17	5	3	9	-6	18
16	Vitesse	15	5	2	8	-10	17
17	Zwolle	17	3	5	9	-7	14
18	Nijmegen	17	3	5	9	-9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	12	4	1	+25	40
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	12	3	2	+17	39
3	Feyenoord	17	11	2	4	+20	35
4	Twente	17	10	3	4	+3	33
5	Vitesse	16	9	2	5	+0	29
6	Nijmegen	17	7	3	7	-5	24
7	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	3	7	+1	21
8	Cambuur	17	6	3	8	-11	21
9	Heerenveen	16	5	5	6	-9	20
10	Groningen	17	5	3	9	-11	18
11	Waalwijk	17	3	8	6	-3	17
12	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Sparta Rotterdam	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	For Sittard	17	4	3	10	-20	15
15	Go Ahead Eagles	17	3	5	9	-15	14
16	Zwolle	17	4	1	12	-19	13
17	Willem II	17	2	3	12	-23	9
18	Heracles	18	2	2	14	-20	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.