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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Excelsior

T S S U S

3–0

Full-time

Heracles

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,7

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,3

This season — Eredivisie · 2/34 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

26%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

38%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

11 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	34	26	5	3	+79	83
2	PSV Eindhoven	34	26	3	5	+44	81
3	Feyenoord	34	22	5	7	+42	71
4	Twente	34	20	8	6	+18	68
5	AZ Alkmaar	30	15	6	9	+15	51
6	Utrecht	32	12	10	10	+6	46
7	Vitesse	30	14	4	12	-8	46
8	Heerenveen	32	11	8	13	-10	41
9	Cambuur	34	11	6	17	-17	39
10	Waalwijk	34	9	11	14	-11	38
11	Nijmegen	34	10	8	16	-14	38
12	Groningen	34	9	9	16	-14	36
13	Go Ahead Eagles	34	10	6	18	-14	36
14	Sparta Rotterdam	34	8	11	15	-18	35
15	For Sittard	34	10	5	19	-31	35
16	Heracles	34	9	7	18	-16	34
17	Willem II	34	9	6	19	-25	33
18	Zwolle	34	7	6	21	-26	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	14	1	2	+54	43
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	14	0	3	+27	42
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+22	36
4	Twente	17	10	5	2	+15	35
5	AZ Alkmaar	15	9	3	3	+13	30
6	Utrecht	16	8	5	3	+12	29
7	Heracles	17	7	5	5	+1	26
8	Willem II	17	7	3	7	-2	24
9	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	1	9	+1	22
10	Heerenveen	16	6	3	7	-1	21
11	Waalwijk	17	6	3	8	-8	21
12	For Sittard	17	6	2	9	-11	20
13	Sparta Rotterdam	17	4	7	6	-5	19
14	Groningen	17	4	6	7	-3	18
15	Cambuur	17	5	3	9	-6	18
16	Vitesse	15	5	2	8	-10	17
17	Zwolle	17	3	5	9	-7	14
18	Nijmegen	17	3	5	9	-9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	17	12	4	1	+25	40
2	PSV Eindhoven	17	12	3	2	+17	39
3	Feyenoord	17	11	2	4	+20	35
4	Twente	17	10	3	4	+3	33
5	Vitesse	15	9	2	4	+2	29
6	Nijmegen	17	7	3	7	-5	24
7	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	3	6	+2	21
8	Cambuur	17	6	3	8	-11	21
9	Heerenveen	16	5	5	6	-9	20
10	Groningen	17	5	3	9	-11	18
11	Waalwijk	17	3	8	6	-3	17
12	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-6	17
13	Sparta Rotterdam	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	For Sittard	17	4	3	10	-20	15
15	Go Ahead Eagles	17	3	5	9	-15	14
16	Zwolle	17	4	1	12	-19	13
17	Willem II	17	2	3	12	-23	9
18	Heracles	17	2	2	13	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.