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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

AZ Alkmaar

T S S U T

2–4

Full-time

Nijmegen

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

30%

40%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

60%

30%

Both score Ø 45%

60%

30%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

57% Possession 43%

17 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 11. · Nijmegen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	11	9	1	1	+25	28
2	Feyenoord	11	8	1	2	+11	25
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	3	1	+16	24
4	Heracles	11	8	0	3	+10	24
5	Vitesse	11	6	2	3	+16	20
6	Zwolle	10	5	2	3	+1	17
7	Groningen	11	5	2	4	-2	17
8	Nijmegen	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Utrecht	10	3	4	3	+1	13
10	Roda	11	3	4	4	-7	13
11	AZ Alkmaar	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Excelsior	11	3	3	5	-6	12
13	Den Haag	11	2	5	4	-5	11
14	Heerenveen	11	2	5	4	-5	11
15	Twente	11	2	3	6	-10	9
16	Willem II	11	1	4	6	-6	7
17	Cambuur	11	0	6	5	-18	6
18	De Graafschap	11	0	2	9	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Groningen	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+8	15
3	Heracles	6	5	0	1	+7	15
4	Ajax	5	4	0	1	+14	12
5	Vitesse	5	4	0	1	+12	12
6	Utrecht	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Zwolle	5	3	1	1	+1	10
10	Roda	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	9
12	Den Haag	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Excelsior	5	2	1	2	-1	7
15	Twente	5	2	1	2	-3	7
16	Willem II	5	1	2	2	+0	5
17	Cambuur	6	0	3	3	-13	3
18	De Graafschap	6	0	1	5	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	6	5	1	0	+11	16
2	PSV Eindhoven	7	4	2	1	+11	14
3	Feyenoord	6	3	1	2	+3	10
4	Heracles	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Vitesse	6	2	2	2	+4	8
6	Zwolle	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	AZ Alkmaar	5	1	2	2	-2	5
8	Excelsior	6	1	2	3	-5	5
9	Nijmegen	5	1	1	3	-4	4
10	Den Haag	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Roda	5	1	1	3	-9	4
12	Cambuur	5	0	3	2	-5	3
13	Willem II	6	0	2	4	-6	2
14	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-6	2
15	Twente	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	-9	1
18	Groningen	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.