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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

Nijmegen

T S S U S

0–3

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

50%

40%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

35%

65%

Both score Ø 48%

35%

60%

Average goals

2,3

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

50% Possession 50%

5 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 11

0 Blocked shots 3

8 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 9

5 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 4. · AZ Alkmaar 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	21	15	5	1	+31	50
2	Ajax	20	15	3	2	+36	48
3	Feyenoord	20	11	3	6	+14	36
4	Nijmegen	20	10	4	6	+7	34
5	Vitesse	21	9	6	6	+19	33
6	Heracles	19	9	5	5	+4	32
7	Groningen	20	8	7	5	-1	31
8	Zwolle	19	8	5	6	+5	29
9	AZ Alkmaar	20	8	4	8	+0	28
10	Heerenveen	20	7	5	8	-7	26
11	Utrecht	17	6	5	6	+2	23
12	Den Haag	20	5	8	7	-3	23
13	Roda	20	5	7	8	-15	22
14	Willem II	21	4	8	9	-4	20
15	Excelsior	21	4	6	11	-16	18
16	Twente	20	4	4	12	-23	16
17	Cambuur	20	2	7	11	-26	13
18	De Graafschap	21	3	2	16	-23	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	8	2	0	+15	26
2	Nijmegen	11	8	2	1	+12	26
3	Ajax	10	8	1	1	+23	25
4	Feyenoord	10	7	1	2	+13	22
5	Groningen	10	6	3	1	+7	21
6	Vitesse	11	6	2	3	+14	20
7	Heracles	9	6	2	1	+8	20
8	Heerenveen	10	5	3	2	+3	18
9	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	2	4	+3	17
10	Zwolle	10	5	2	3	+1	17
11	Utrecht	7	4	3	0	+6	15
12	Willem II	11	3	5	3	+3	14
13	Roda	11	3	5	3	-3	14
14	Twente	9	4	1	4	-3	13
15	Den Haag	10	2	6	2	+0	12
16	Excelsior	10	2	2	6	-9	8
17	De Graafschap	10	2	1	7	-8	7
18	Cambuur	10	1	4	5	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	3	1	+16	24
2	Ajax	10	7	2	1	+13	23
3	Feyenoord	10	4	2	4	+1	14
4	Vitesse	10	3	4	3	+5	13
5	Zwolle	9	3	3	3	+4	12
6	Heracles	10	3	3	4	-4	12
7	Den Haag	10	3	2	5	-3	11
8	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	2	4	-3	11
9	Excelsior	11	2	4	5	-7	10
10	Groningen	10	2	4	4	-8	10
11	Utrecht	10	2	2	6	-4	8
12	Nijmegen	9	2	2	5	-5	8
13	Heerenveen	10	2	2	6	-10	8
14	Roda	9	2	2	5	-12	8
15	Willem II	10	1	3	6	-7	6
16	Cambuur	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	De Graafschap	11	1	1	9	-15	4
18	Twente	11	0	3	8	-20	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.