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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Liverpool

U S S U T

4–0

Full-time

Arsenal

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,8

2,5

Scored

3,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 55%

55%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

82%

36%

Both score Ø 36%

45%

27%

Average goals

3,8

2,4

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 8

15 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	9	2	1	+26	29
2	Man City	11	7	2	2	+16	23
3	West Ham	12	7	2	3	+9	23
4	Liverpool	11	6	4	1	+20	22
5	Arsenal	11	6	2	3	+0	20
6	Wolves	12	6	1	5	+0	19
7	Man United	12	5	2	5	-1	17
8	Brighton	12	4	5	3	-2	17
9	Crystal Palace	12	3	7	2	+1	16
10	Tottenham	11	5	1	5	-7	16
11	Everton	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Leicester	12	4	3	5	-5	15
13	Southampton	12	3	5	4	-3	14
14	Brentford	12	3	4	5	-1	13
15	Watford	12	4	1	7	-4	13
16	Aston Villa	12	4	1	7	-4	13
17	Leeds	11	2	5	4	-7	11
18	Burnley	12	1	6	5	-6	9
19	Norwich	12	2	2	8	-20	8
20	Newcastle	12	0	6	6	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+14	13
2	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+4	13
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+10	10
4	Crystal Palace	6	2	4	0	+5	10
5	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Everton	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	+5	9
9	Southampton	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Wolves	6	3	0	3	-1	9
11	Tottenham	5	3	0	2	-3	9
12	Brighton	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Man United	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Watford	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	Leeds	6	1	3	2	-3	6
18	Brentford	6	1	1	4	-2	4
19	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-6	4
20	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	6	5	1	0	+12	16
2	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	+15	13
3	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Wolves	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+0	10
7	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Brighton	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Leicester	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Watford	6	2	0	4	+0	6
13	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Everton	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-4	5
17	Norwich	6	1	1	4	-14	4
18	Burnley	6	0	3	3	-6	3
19	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-6	3
20	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.