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Ligue 1

Referee: M Vernice

Paris FC

U S U S S

0–1

Full-time

Lille

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 42%

30%

53%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

43%

Both score Ø 52%

63%

40%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,06 xG 1,71

47% Possession 53%

7 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

6 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris FC 12. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	22	3	5	+43	+40.9	69
2	Lens	30	20	3	7	+28	+22.6	63
3	Lyon	31	17	6	8	+16	+5.2	57
4	Lille	30	16	6	8	+15	+15.4	54
5	Rennes	30	15	8	7	+11	+4.2	53
6	Marseille	30	16	4	10	+18	+14.5	52
7	Monaco	31	15	6	10	+7	+8.1	51
8	Strasbourg	30	13	7	10	+10	+8.4	46
9	Lorient	31	10	11	10	-5	-0.9	41
10	Toulouse	31	10	8	13	-1	-0.7	38
11	Brest	30	10	8	12	-6	-5.5	38
12	Paris FC	30	9	11	10	-6	-12.3	38
13	Angers	31	9	7	15	-17	-21.4	34
14	Le Havre	30	6	12	12	-13	-11.8	30
15	Nice	30	7	8	15	-22	-15.8	29
16	Auxerre	31	5	10	16	-15	-10.9	25
17	Nantes	30	4	8	18	-24	-15.1	20
18	Metz	30	3	6	21	-39	-24.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	0	2	+23	+20.3	39
2	Paris SG	15	12	1	2	+28	+22.1	37
3	Lyon	15	11	1	3	+14	+8.9	34
4	Marseille	15	10	3	2	+19	+12.4	33
5	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+11	+9.8	32
6	Lorient	16	8	6	2	+8	+5.6	30
7	Rennes	15	8	4	3	+11	+7.3	28
8	Lille	15	8	4	3	+9	+11.9	28
9	Strasbourg	15	8	3	4	+11	+11.9	27
10	Brest	15	7	4	4	+6	+4.7	25
11	Le Havre	15	5	7	3	+3	+0.8	22
12	Angers	16	6	4	6	-2	-7.3	22
13	Toulouse	16	5	6	5	+0	+6.2	21
14	Paris FC	14	5	4	5	-3	-3.7	19
15	Nice	15	4	6	5	-8	-4.0	18
16	Auxerre	15	4	4	7	-2	+0.5	16
17	Metz	15	2	4	9	-12	-2.0	10
18	Nantes	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	10	2	3	+15	+18.8	32
2	Lille	15	8	2	5	+6	+3.5	26
3	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+0	-3.1	25
4	Lens	15	7	3	5	+5	+2.3	24
5	Lyon	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.6	23
6	Strasbourg	15	5	4	6	-1	-3.5	19
7	Marseille	15	6	1	8	-1	+2.1	19
8	Paris FC	16	4	7	5	-3	-8.6	19
9	Monaco	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.7	19
10	Toulouse	15	5	2	8	-1	-6.9	17
11	Brest	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.2	13
12	Angers	15	3	3	9	-15	-14.1	12
13	Nantes	15	2	5	8	-12	-8.2	11
14	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-13	-6.5	11
15	Nice	15	3	2	10	-14	-11.8	11
16	Auxerre	16	1	6	9	-13	-11.4	9
17	Le Havre	15	1	5	9	-16	-12.7	8
18	Metz	15	1	2	12	-27	-22.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.