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Bundesliga

Referee: Robin Braun

Dortmund

S S S T T

4–0

Full-time

Freiburg

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 52%

63%

40%

Points per game

2,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

57%

63%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

3,37 xG 0,76

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 2. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	26	4	1	+81	+58.2	82
2	Dortmund	30	19	7	4	+30	+20.2	64
3	RB Leipzig	31	19	5	7	+24	+19.0	62
4	Stuttgart	31	17	6	8	+20	+8.7	57
5	Hoffenheim	31	17	6	8	+16	+3.1	57
6	Leverkusen	31	16	7	8	+20	+17.3	55
7	Ein Frankfurt	31	11	10	10	-2	-5.4	43
8	Freiburg	30	12	7	11	-4	+3.9	43
9	Augsburg	31	10	7	14	-16	-16.4	37
10	Mainz	31	8	10	13	-10	-4.0	34
11	M'gladbach	31	7	11	13	-14	-9.6	32
12	Werder Bremen	31	8	8	15	-18	-9.4	32
13	Union Berlin	31	8	8	15	-20	-9.8	32
14	FC Koln	31	7	10	14	-8	-1.8	31
15	Hamburg	31	7	10	14	-16	-19.8	31
16	St Pauli	31	6	8	17	-27	-21.7	26
17	Wolfsburg	31	6	7	18	-25	-16.8	25
18	Heidenheim	31	5	7	19	-31	-15.6	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	13	1	1	+45	+33.7	40
2	Stuttgart	16	11	3	2	+12	+10.0	36
3	RB Leipzig	16	11	2	3	+19	+13.9	35
4	Dortmund	15	11	2	2	+19	+18.0	35
5	Hoffenheim	15	9	1	5	+13	+7.7	28
6	Freiburg	15	8	4	3	+8	+10.5	28
7	Leverkusen	15	8	3	4	+16	+19.9	27
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.1	24
9	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-5	-6.5	23
10	Hamburg	16	5	6	5	+2	-2.7	21
11	FC Koln	16	5	4	7	+2	+5.0	19
12	Werder Bremen	15	5	4	6	-8	+4.5	19
13	Union Berlin	15	4	6	5	-4	+5.0	18
14	M'gladbach	15	4	6	5	-5	-3.4	18
15	Mainz	16	4	5	7	-2	+5.4	17
16	St Pauli	15	4	5	6	-11	-6.2	17
17	Heidenheim	16	4	5	7	-12	-7.8	17
18	Wolfsburg	16	2	4	10	-10	-0.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	3	0	+36	+24.4	42
2	Dortmund	15	8	5	2	+11	+2.1	29
3	Hoffenheim	16	8	5	3	+3	-4.6	29
4	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+4	-2.6	28
5	RB Leipzig	15	8	3	4	+5	+5.1	27
6	Stuttgart	15	6	3	6	+8	-1.2	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	7	5	-5	-8.5	19
8	Mainz	15	4	5	6	-8	-9.4	17
9	Freiburg	15	4	3	8	-12	-6.6	15
10	Wolfsburg	15	4	3	8	-15	-16.8	15
11	M'gladbach	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.3	14
12	Augsburg	15	4	2	9	-11	-9.9	14
13	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-16	-14.9	14
14	Werder Bremen	16	3	4	9	-10	-13.9	13
15	FC Koln	15	2	6	7	-10	-6.8	12
16	Hamburg	15	2	4	9	-18	-17.1	10
17	St Pauli	16	2	3	11	-16	-15.5	9
18	Heidenheim	15	1	2	12	-19	-7.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.