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Ligue 1
Referee: G Angoula
Lorient
U U U S T
1–1
Full-time
Paris FC
U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Paris FC
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 30%
33%
26%
Points per game
1,4
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
44%
52%
Both score Ø 58%
56%
59%
Average goals
2,9
2,8
Scored
1,4
1,2
Conceded
1,5
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,21 xG 0,95
49% Possession 51%
10 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 6
3 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 6
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lorient 10. · Paris FC 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 27 20 3 4 +38 +35.0 63
2 Lens 28 19 2 7 +27 +16.8 59
3 Lille 28 15 5 8 +11 +13.7 50
4 Marseille 27 15 4 8 +19 +10.5 49
5 Lyon 28 14 6 8 +12 +6.9 48
6 Rennes 28 13 8 7 +7 +0.9 47
7 Monaco 27 14 4 9 +9 +8.5 46
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 +12 +12.5 43
9 Toulouse 28 10 7 11 +4 +3.0 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 -4 -2.5 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 -6 -2.5 36
12 Angers 28 9 6 13 -13 -18.8 33
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 -11 -13.0 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 -13 -10.7 27
15 Nice 28 7 6 15 -22 -15.8 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 -14 -7.8 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 -21 -13.5 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 -35 -23.0 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lorient Paris FC
Half-time 0–0
50′
🟨 Adama Camara
1–0 B. Dieng
P. Pagis
54′
S. Soumano 🔁
↦ B. Dieng
67′
70′
🔁 I. Kebbal
↦ J. Ikone
70′
🔁 A. Gory
↦ A. Camara
71′
🔁 H. Traore
↦ M. Lopez
71′
🔁 L. Koleosho
↦ W. Geubbels
D. Karim 🔁
↦ P. Pagis
72′
A. Tosin 🔁
↦ J. Makengo
72′
74′
M. Munetsi 1–1
79′
🟨 Pierre Lees Melou
P. Katseris 🔁
↦ T. Le Bris
81′
Arsène Kouassi 🟨
85′
93′
🔁 S. Chergui
↦ M. Simon
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lorient

3-4-2-1
38 Y. Mvogo G
5 B. Meite D
3 M. Talbi D
25 A. Faye D
11 T. Le Bris M
8 N. Cadiou M
62 A. Avom M
43 A. Kouassi M
17 J. Makengo F
10 P. Pagis F
12 B. Dieng F
Bench (9)
21 B. Kamara
2 Igor Silva
32 N. Adjei
29 D. Karim
35 D. Semedo
15 A. Tosin
44 D. Yongwa
77 P. Katseris
28 S. Soumano

Coach: Olivier Pantaloni

Paris FC

4-2-3-1
35 K. Trapp G
17 A. Camara D
42 D. Coppola D
5 M. Mbow D
19 N. Sangui D
33 P. Lees-Melou M
21 M. Lopez M
93 J. Ikone M
18 M. Munetsi M
27 M. Simon M
9 W. Geubbels F
Bench (9)
16 O. Nkambadio
15 T. Kolodziejczak
31 S. Chergui
10 I. Kebbal
14 H. Traore
28 T. De Smet
13 M. Cafaro
7 A. Gory
24 L. Koleosho

Coach: Antoine Kombouare

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,22
U ✓
3,24
B
3,21
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,08
U2,5 ✓
1,69
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Angoula · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.