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Europa League
Referee: Davide Massa
Aston Villa
U T T S T
2–0
Full-time
Lille
S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
1,7
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
2,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 9/11 matches
Win Ø 67%
89%
45%
Points per game
2,7
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
44%
36%
Both score Ø 36%
44%
27%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,85 xG 0,39
52% Possession 48%
8 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
7 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Mar -26 Lille – Aston Villa 0–1 18. Apr -24 Lille – Aston Villa 2–1 11. Apr -24 Aston Villa – Lille 2–1

Match report

Aston Villa Lille
25′
🟨 Félix Correia
Half-time 1–0
1–0 J. McGinn ⚽
J. Sancho
54′
O. Watkins 🔁
↦ T. Abraham
56′
66′
🔁 M. Fernandez-Pardo
↦ N. Mukau
66′
🔁 N. Edjouma
↦ A. Bouaddi
66′
🔁 H. Haraldsson
↦ F. Correia
Douglas Luiz 🟨
72′
73′
🔁 A. Mandi
↦ Alexsandro
E. Buendia 🔁
↦ J. McGinn
74′
M. Cash 🔁
↦ L. Bogarde
74′
81′
🔁 T. Santos
↦ T. Meunier
L. Bailey 🔁
↦ J. Sancho
84′
H. Elliott 🔁
↦ M. Rogers
84′
2–0 L. Bailey ⚽
O. Watkins
86′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1
23 E. Martinez G
26 L. Bogarde D
3 V. Lindelof D
14 P. Torres D
22 I. Maatsen D
24 A. Onana M
21 Douglas Luiz M
19 J. Sancho M
27 M. Rogers M
7 J. McGinn M
18 T. Abraham F
Bench (11)
40 M. Bizot
64 J. Wright
5 T. Mings
11 O. Watkins
31 L. Bailey
9 H. Elliott
12 L. Digne
10 E. Buendia
4 E. Konsa
2 M. Cash
16 A. Garcia

Coach: Unai Emery

Lille

3-4-3
1 B. Ozer G
3 N. Ngoy D
18 C. Mbemba D
4 Alexsandro D
12 T. Meunier M
6 N. Bentaleb M
32 A. Bouaddi M
15 R. Perraud M
17 N. Mukau F
9 O. Giroud F
27 F. Correia F
Bench (11)
16 A. Bodart
60 Z. Lanssade
23 A. Mandi
7 M. Fernandez-Pardo
20 N. Edjouma
39 L. Baret
35 S. Diaoune
24 C. Verdonk
10 H. Haraldsson
22 T. Santos
42 S. Boussadia

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Davide Massa · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.