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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Marseille

U S S T T

3–1

Full-time

Metz

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 33%

54%

11%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

64%

57%

Both score Ø 48%

50%

46%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,9

Conceded

1,3

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,55 xG 0,48

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 4. · Metz 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	20	3	4	+38	+35.0	63
2	Lens	28	19	2	7	+27	+16.8	59
3	Lille	28	15	5	8	+11	+13.7	50
4	Marseille	28	15	4	9	+18	+11.1	49
5	Monaco	29	15	4	10	+7	+7.6	49
6	Lyon	28	14	6	8	+12	+6.9	48
7	Rennes	28	13	8	7	+7	+0.9	47
8	Strasbourg	28	12	7	9	+12	+12.5	43
9	Lorient	28	9	11	8	-4	-2.2	38
10	Toulouse	28	10	7	11	+4	+3.0	37
11	Brest	28	10	6	12	-6	-2.5	36
12	Paris FC	29	8	11	10	-8	-13.0	35
13	Angers	28	9	6	13	-13	-18.8	33
14	Le Havre	28	6	10	12	-13	-11.9	28
15	Nice	28	7	6	15	-22	-15.8	27
16	Auxerre	28	5	8	15	-14	-6.7	23
17	Nantes	27	4	6	17	-21	-15.4	18
18	Metz	28	3	6	19	-35	-21.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	12	0	2	+22	+16.9	36
2	Paris SG	13	11	1	1	+26	+18.3	34
3	Monaco	15	10	1	4	+11	+8.2	31
4	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+17	+9.3	30
5	Lyon	13	9	1	3	+11	+8.0	28
6	Strasbourg	14	8	3	3	+14	+15.1	27
7	Lille	14	8	3	3	+9	+11.5	27
8	Lorient	14	7	6	1	+7	+5.0	27
9	Rennes	14	7	4	3	+10	+7.2	25
10	Brest	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.2	24
11	Le Havre	15	5	7	3	+3	+0.8	22
12	Angers	14	6	3	5	+1	-4.8	21
13	Toulouse	14	5	5	4	+4	+6.6	20
14	Paris FC	14	5	4	5	-3	-3.7	19
15	Nice	14	4	5	5	-8	-4.3	17
16	Auxerre	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.5	15
17	Metz	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Nantes	14	2	2	10	-12	-7.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.7	29
2	Lens	14	7	2	5	+5	-0.2	23
3	Lille	14	7	2	5	+2	+2.1	23
4	Rennes	14	6	4	4	-3	-6.3	22
5	Lyon	15	5	5	5	+1	-1.1	20
6	Marseille	14	6	1	7	+1	+1.8	19
7	Monaco	14	5	3	6	-4	-0.7	18
8	Toulouse	14	5	2	7	+0	-3.6	17
9	Strasbourg	14	4	4	6	-2	-2.6	16
10	Paris FC	15	3	7	5	-5	-9.4	16
11	Brest	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
12	Angers	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.0	12
13	Lorient	14	2	5	7	-11	-7.2	11
14	Nantes	13	2	4	7	-9	-8.0	10
15	Nice	14	3	1	10	-14	-11.5	10
16	Auxerre	14	1	5	8	-12	-8.2	8
17	Le Havre	13	1	3	9	-16	-12.7	6
18	Metz	14	1	2	11	-25	-19.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.