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Ligue 1

Referee: Ruddy Buquet

Paris FC

S T U S T

1–2

Full-time

Nantes

T U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris FC Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 26%

38%

13%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

63%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

1,6

0,6

Conceded

1,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,19 xG 0,90

68% Possession 32%

14 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 2

9 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris FC 11. · Nantes 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	6	0	2	+14	+9.2	18
2	Paris SG	8	5	2	1	+8	+5.2	17
3	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+7	+6.1	16
4	Lens	8	5	1	2	+5	+3.4	16
5	Lyon	8	5	0	3	+3	+6.5	15
6	Lille	8	4	2	2	+6	+5.3	14
7	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+4	+2.8	14
8	Toulouse	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.0	13
9	Rennes	8	2	5	1	-1	-3.2	11
10	Nice	8	3	2	3	-2	-5.5	11
11	Paris FC	8	3	1	4	-2	-2.4	10
12	Brest	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.7	9
13	Lorient	8	2	2	4	-7	-1.9	8
14	Auxerre	8	2	1	5	-5	-2.8	7
15	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-4	-7.2	6
16	Le Havre	8	1	3	4	-6	-1.2	6
17	Angers	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6
18	Metz	8	0	2	6	-15	-10.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.0	12
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.7	10
3	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
4	Nice	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.1	10
5	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
6	Lens	4	3	0	1	+5	+5.6	9
7	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.1	9
8	Rennes	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.9	8
9	Toulouse	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.0	7
10	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.2	7
11	Lorient	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.6	7
12	Paris FC	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
13	Auxerre	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.0	6
14	Brest	4	1	2	1	+2	+2.5	5
15	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+1	+4.6	5
16	Angers	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.4	5
17	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.9	4
18	Metz	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	4	2	1	1	+5	+2.1	7
2	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.1	7
3	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.3	7
4	Lens	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.2	7
5	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.2	6
6	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.0	6
7	Lyon	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.4	6
8	Brest	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
9	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
10	Paris FC	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.0	4
11	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
12	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	-4.3	2
13	Nice	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.5	1
14	Auxerre	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.8	1
15	Le Havre	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.8	1
16	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
17	Lorient	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
18	Metz	4	0	0	4	-11	-7.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.