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Ligue 1

Referee: Abdelatif Kherradji

Nice

S T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Paris FC

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Paris FC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 70%

60%

80%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,8

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,96 xG 1,84

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 12. · Paris FC 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	5	0	1	+8	+3.8	15
2	Marseille	6	4	0	2	+7	+3.0	12
3	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.8	12
4	Lyon	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.7	12
5	Strasbourg	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.2	12
6	Lille	5	3	1	1	+5	+3.0	10
7	Lens	5	3	0	2	+3	+3.8	9
8	Rennes	5	2	2	1	-1	-3.2	8
9	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.5	7
10	Lorient	6	2	1	3	-5	-1.4	7
11	Paris FC	5	2	0	3	-3	-2.2	6
12	Nice	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.0	6
13	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-4	-3.5	6
14	Angers	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.9	5
15	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	-3.7	5
16	Brest	5	1	1	3	-2	-2.1	4
17	Le Havre	5	1	1	3	-2	+2.1	4
18	Metz	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.3	9
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.8	9
3	Lyon	3	3	0	0	+5	+5.1	9
4	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.6	9
5	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
6	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
7	Nice	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.6	6
8	Lille	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.1	6
9	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.4	6
10	Auxerre	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.3	6
11	Lorient	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
12	Brest	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.1	4
13	Le Havre	3	1	1	1	+1	+4.0	4
14	Angers	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.2	4
15	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
16	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.5	4
17	Paris FC	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.6	3
18	Metz	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.2	6
2	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
3	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
4	Marseille	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.4	3
5	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
6	Toulouse	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.0	3
7	Lens	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.7	3
8	Monaco	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
9	Paris FC	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.8	3
10	Rennes	3	0	2	1	-4	-3.5	2
11	Nantes	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.0	1
12	Angers	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.7	1
13	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.4	1
14	Le Havre	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
15	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.2	0
16	Nice	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Auxerre	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.3	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.