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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Marseille

T T S T S

4–1

Full-time

Brest

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

67%

63%

Both score Ø 62%

63%

60%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,1

1,6

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

0,91 xG 1,81

54% Possession 46%

11 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 4. · Brest 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	24	6	1	+53	+54.6	78
2	Lille	31	16	8	7	+17	+10.2	56
3	Monaco	31	16	7	8	+22	+38.5	55
4	Marseille	30	17	4	9	+20	+14.0	55
5	Lyon	31	16	6	9	+20	+11.5	54
6	Nice	31	15	9	7	+20	+18.1	54
7	Strasbourg	31	15	9	7	+13	-6.7	54
8	Lens	31	13	6	12	-2	+6.6	45
9	Brest	30	13	5	12	-1	-9.0	44
10	Auxerre	31	11	8	12	+0	-12.7	41
11	Rennes	31	12	2	17	+2	+4.8	38
12	Toulouse	31	9	8	14	-1	+11.1	35
13	Reims	31	8	9	14	-10	-20.0	33
14	Nantes	31	7	11	13	-15	-18.2	32
15	Angers	31	8	6	17	-21	-19.0	30
16	Le Havre	31	8	4	19	-31	-22.5	28
17	St Etienne	31	7	6	18	-37	-34.6	27
18	Montpellier	31	4	4	23	-49	-26.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+27	+30.7	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Lille	15	10	3	2	+12	+3.7	33
4	Lyon	15	10	2	3	+15	+9.7	32
5	Strasbourg	15	9	5	1	+13	-0.4	32
6	Nice	15	9	4	2	+16	+16.3	31
7	Marseille	15	8	4	3	+13	+16.1	28
8	Brest	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
9	Auxerre	15	7	5	3	+8	+1.2	26
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	St Etienne	15	6	3	6	-6	-6.7	21
12	Lens	16	6	2	8	-7	+6.7	20
13	Nantes	15	4	6	5	-1	+0.4	18
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-3	+3.4	16
15	Reims	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.3	16
16	Angers	16	4	2	10	-16	-12.4	14
17	Montpellier	16	3	4	9	-21	-5.7	13
18	Le Havre	16	3	2	11	-24	-12.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+26	+23.9	37
2	Marseille	15	9	0	6	+7	-2.1	27
3	Lens	15	7	4	4	+5	-0.1	25
4	Lille	16	6	5	5	+5	+6.5	23
5	Nice	16	6	5	5	+4	+1.8	23
6	Lyon	16	6	4	6	+5	+1.8	22
7	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
8	Monaco	15	5	4	6	+2	+13.9	19
9	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	+2	+7.7	19
10	Reims	15	4	5	6	-4	-12.7	17
11	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-7	-9.6	17
12	Brest	15	5	2	8	-8	-8.1	17
13	Angers	15	4	4	7	-5	-6.7	16
14	Auxerre	16	4	3	9	-8	-13.9	15
15	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
16	Rennes	15	4	1	10	-4	-0.9	13
17	St Etienne	16	1	3	12	-31	-27.9	6
18	Montpellier	15	1	0	14	-28	-20.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.