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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Paris SG

S S T S S

3–1

Full-time

Marseille

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,0

3,2

Scored

3,2

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 70%

80%

60%

Points per game

2,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

72%

60%

Both score Ø 68%

76%

60%

Average goals

3,8

3,3

Scored

2,8

2,1

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,73 xG 0,98

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

4 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Marseille 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	20	5	0	+46	+42.8	65
2	Marseille	25	15	4	6	+22	+13.9	49
3	Monaco	26	14	5	7	+19	+31.0	47
4	Nice	26	13	8	5	+19	+17.3	47
5	Lyon	26	13	6	7	+17	+7.1	45
6	Lille	26	12	8	6	+12	+7.7	44
7	Strasbourg	26	12	7	7	+8	-6.1	43
8	Lens	26	11	6	9	+2	+4.8	39
9	Brest	26	11	4	11	-2	-6.6	37
10	Toulouse	26	9	7	10	+4	+9.8	34
11	Auxerre	26	8	8	10	-2	-10.9	32
12	Rennes	26	9	2	15	-2	+0.4	29
13	Nantes	26	6	9	11	-14	-10.9	27
14	Angers	26	7	6	13	-16	-14.3	27
15	Reims	26	5	8	13	-14	-16.4	23
16	St Etienne	26	6	5	15	-30	-30.7	23
17	Le Havre	26	6	3	17	-29	-18.7	21
18	Montpellier	26	4	3	19	-40	-20.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+25	+22.3	32
2	Monaco	13	9	2	2	+16	+20.5	29
3	Nice	13	8	4	1	+16	+12.4	28
4	Lille	13	8	3	2	+9	+0.4	27
5	Lyon	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.8	26
6	Strasbourg	12	7	4	1	+9	+0.8	25
7	Brest	13	7	3	3	+8	+1.7	24
8	Auxerre	13	6	5	2	+9	+2.0	23
9	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+8	+12.8	22
10	Rennes	14	7	1	6	+6	+3.1	22
11	St Etienne	12	5	2	5	-2	-4.4	17
12	Lens	13	5	2	6	-2	+5.3	17
13	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	+0	+2.2	16
14	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
15	Montpellier	14	3	3	8	-19	-5.4	12
16	Angers	13	3	2	8	-13	-11.9	11
17	Reims	13	2	4	7	-8	-5.6	10
18	Le Havre	13	2	1	10	-21	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	3	0	+21	+20.5	33
2	Marseille	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.2	27
3	Lens	13	6	4	3	+4	-0.5	22
4	Lyon	13	5	4	4	+6	-0.6	19
5	Nice	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.9	19
6	Toulouse	13	5	3	5	+4	+7.7	18
7	Monaco	13	5	3	5	+3	+10.5	18
8	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-1	-6.9	18
9	Lille	13	4	5	4	+3	+7.2	17
10	Angers	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
11	Le Havre	13	4	2	7	-8	-7.3	14
12	Reims	13	3	4	6	-6	-10.9	13
13	Brest	13	4	1	8	-10	-8.3	13
14	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-13	-11.8	11
15	Auxerre	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.9	9
16	Rennes	12	2	1	9	-8	-2.7	7
17	St Etienne	14	1	3	10	-28	-26.3	6
18	Montpellier	12	1	0	11	-21	-14.8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.