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Ekstraklasa

Referee: T Kwiatkowski

Korona Kielce

U T T S U

3–1

Full-time

Jagiellonia

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Korona Kielce Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 43%

31%

55%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

34%

52%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,00 xG 2,13

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Korona Kielce 11. · Jagiellonia 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	30	18	8	4	+26	+9.9	62
2	Lech Poznan	29	19	2	8	+28	+11.3	59
3	Jagiellonia	29	16	7	6	+15	+2.1	55
4	Pogon Szczecin	30	16	5	9	+18	+16.0	53
5	Legia	30	14	8	8	+16	+15.4	50
6	Cracovia	30	12	9	9	+5	-5.7	45
7	Motor Lublin	30	12	7	11	-7	-0.3	43
8	GKS Katowice	30	12	6	12	+1	-1.2	42
9	Gornik Zabrze	29	12	5	12	+4	+5.8	41
10	Piast Gliwice	30	9	11	10	-3	-3.9	38
11	Korona Kielce	29	9	10	10	-10	+0.7	37
12	Widzew Lodz	29	10	6	13	-9	-6.3	36
13	Radomiak Radom	29	10	5	14	-5	-0.9	35
14	Zaglebie	29	9	5	15	-15	-6.4	32
15	Lechia Gdansk	30	8	6	16	-17	-17.5	30
16	Puszcza	30	6	9	15	-16	-16.8	27
17	Slask Wroclaw	30	5	10	15	-15	-0.6	25
18	Stal Mielec	29	6	7	16	-16	-1.7	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	15	13	0	2	+26	+10.6	39
2	Pogon Szczecin	15	12	1	2	+19	+15.5	37
3	Jagiellonia	15	9	4	2	+14	+4.7	31
4	Legia	15	9	3	3	+15	+11.6	30
5	Rakow	15	9	3	3	+13	+6.7	30
6	GKS Katowice	15	7	4	4	+6	-4.0	25
7	Gornik Zabrze	14	7	2	5	+7	+6.4	23
8	Widzew Lodz	15	7	2	6	-1	-0.4	23
9	Motor Lublin	15	6	4	5	+2	+0.1	22
10	Stal Mielec	15	5	5	5	-1	+4.4	20
11	Korona Kielce	14	6	2	6	-2	+5.8	20
12	Lechia Gdansk	15	6	2	7	-5	-7.4	20
13	Radomiak Radom	14	5	4	5	+4	+3.7	19
14	Piast Gliwice	15	4	7	4	-2	-0.6	19
15	Cracovia	15	4	6	5	+0	-1.3	18
16	Puszcza	15	4	6	5	-2	-3.1	18
17	Zaglebie	14	5	2	7	-5	-3.4	17
18	Slask Wroclaw	15	3	6	6	-3	-0.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	15	9	5	1	+13	+3.2	32
2	Cracovia	15	8	3	4	+5	-4.5	27
3	Jagiellonia	14	7	3	4	+1	-2.6	24
4	Motor Lublin	15	6	3	6	-9	-0.4	21
5	Lech Poznan	14	6	2	6	+2	+0.7	20
6	Legia	15	5	5	5	+1	+3.7	20
7	Piast Gliwice	15	5	4	6	-1	-3.2	19
8	Gornik Zabrze	15	5	3	7	-3	-0.5	18
9	GKS Katowice	15	5	2	8	-5	+2.8	17
10	Korona Kielce	15	3	8	4	-8	-5.1	17
11	Pogon Szczecin	15	4	4	7	-1	+0.5	16
12	Radomiak Radom	15	5	1	9	-9	-4.5	16
13	Zaglebie	15	4	3	8	-10	-3.1	15
14	Widzew Lodz	14	3	4	7	-8	-5.9	13
15	Lechia Gdansk	15	2	4	9	-12	-10.1	10
16	Slask Wroclaw	15	2	4	9	-12	-0.1	10
17	Puszcza	15	2	3	10	-14	-13.7	9
18	Stal Mielec	14	1	2	11	-15	-6.1	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.