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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Toulouse

T S S U T

2–4

Full-time

Brest

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 39%

35%

42%

Points per game

1,3

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

46%

58%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

54%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,06 xG 1,36

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 5

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 18

0 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Brest 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	22	5	0	+53	+46.8	71
2	Monaco	27	15	5	7	+20	+32.9	50
3	Marseille	27	15	4	8	+18	+12.3	49
4	Nice	27	13	8	6	+18	+15.4	47
5	Strasbourg	27	13	7	7	+10	-7.0	46
6	Lyon	27	13	6	8	+15	+8.0	45
7	Lille	26	12	8	6	+12	+7.7	44
8	Lens	26	11	6	9	+2	+4.8	39
9	Brest	26	11	4	11	-2	-6.6	37
10	Toulouse	26	9	7	10	+4	+9.8	34
11	Auxerre	26	8	8	10	-2	-10.9	32
12	Rennes	26	9	2	15	-2	+0.4	29
13	Nantes	26	6	9	11	-14	-10.9	27
14	Angers	26	7	6	13	-16	-14.3	27
15	Reims	27	6	8	13	-12	-16.5	26
16	St Etienne	27	6	5	16	-35	-33.0	23
17	Le Havre	26	6	3	17	-29	-18.7	21
18	Montpellier	26	4	3	19	-40	-20.2	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+27	+24.0	35
2	Monaco	14	10	2	2	+17	+22.5	32
3	Nice	13	8	4	1	+16	+12.4	28
4	Strasbourg	13	8	4	1	+11	-0.1	28
5	Lille	13	8	3	2	+9	+0.4	27
6	Lyon	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.8	26
7	Brest	13	7	3	3	+8	+1.7	24
8	Auxerre	13	6	5	2	+9	+2.0	23
9	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+8	+12.8	22
10	Rennes	14	7	1	6	+6	+3.1	22
11	Lens	13	5	2	6	-2	+5.3	17
12	St Etienne	13	5	2	6	-7	-6.7	17
13	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	+0	+2.2	16
14	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
15	Reims	14	3	4	7	-6	-5.7	13
16	Montpellier	14	3	3	8	-19	-5.4	12
17	Angers	13	3	2	8	-13	-11.9	11
18	Le Havre	13	2	1	10	-21	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+26	+22.8	36
2	Marseille	14	9	0	5	+10	-0.5	27
3	Lens	13	6	4	3	+4	-0.5	22
4	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+4	+0.3	19
5	Nice	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.9	19
6	Toulouse	13	5	3	5	+4	+7.7	18
7	Monaco	13	5	3	5	+3	+10.5	18
8	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-1	-6.9	18
9	Lille	13	4	5	4	+3	+7.2	17
10	Angers	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
11	Le Havre	13	4	2	7	-8	-7.3	14
12	Reims	13	3	4	6	-6	-10.9	13
13	Brest	13	4	1	8	-10	-8.3	13
14	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-13	-11.8	11
15	Auxerre	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.9	9
16	Rennes	12	2	1	9	-8	-2.7	7
17	St Etienne	14	1	3	10	-28	-26.3	6
18	Montpellier	12	1	0	11	-21	-14.8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.