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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Marseille

T T T S T

5–1

Full-time

Montpellier

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,0

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 35%

55%

14%

Points per game

1,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

66%

55%

Both score Ø 52%

62%

41%

Average goals

3,4

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

1,4

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,73 xG 0,24

68% Possession 32%

18 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Montpellier 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	24	5	0	+55	+51.3	77
2	Monaco	30	16	6	8	+22	+35.8	54
3	Marseille	29	16	4	9	+16	+10.5	52
4	Lyon	29	15	6	8	+18	+11.3	51
5	Strasbourg	30	14	9	7	+11	-7.5	51
6	Lille	29	14	8	7	+13	+7.7	50
7	Nice	29	13	9	7	+17	+17.7	48
8	Brest	29	13	5	11	+1	-7.2	44
9	Lens	29	12	6	11	+0	+6.0	42
10	Rennes	30	12	2	16	+5	+5.8	38
11	Auxerre	29	10	8	11	-2	-12.1	38
12	Toulouse	29	9	7	13	+0	+11.2	34
13	Nantes	29	7	9	13	-15	-17.8	30
14	Angers	29	8	6	15	-18	-15.8	30
15	Reims	29	7	8	14	-11	-19.5	29
16	Le Havre	30	8	3	19	-31	-19.8	27
17	St Etienne	29	6	6	17	-36	-34.6	24
18	Montpellier	29	4	3	22	-45	-23.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	13	2	0	+29	+28.5	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Lille	14	9	3	2	+10	+1.9	30
4	Lyon	14	9	2	3	+12	+8.7	29
5	Strasbourg	14	8	5	1	+11	-1.2	29
6	Nice	14	8	4	2	+15	+13.8	28
7	Brest	14	8	3	3	+9	+0.9	27
8	Auxerre	15	7	5	3	+8	+1.2	26
9	Marseille	14	7	4	3	+9	+12.6	25
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	Lens	15	6	2	7	-3	+7.9	20
12	St Etienne	14	5	3	6	-7	-7.5	18
13	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-3	+3.4	16
15	Angers	15	4	2	9	-14	-11.7	14
16	Reims	15	3	4	8	-7	-6.8	13
17	Montpellier	15	3	3	9	-21	-5.7	12
18	Le Havre	15	3	1	11	-24	-10.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+26	+22.8	36
2	Marseille	15	9	0	6	+7	-2.1	27
3	Lyon	15	6	4	5	+6	+2.6	22
4	Lens	14	6	4	4	+3	-1.9	22
5	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
6	Lille	15	5	5	5	+3	+5.8	20
7	Nice	15	5	5	5	+2	+4.0	20
8	Toulouse	14	5	3	6	+3	+7.9	18
9	Monaco	14	5	3	6	+2	+11.2	18
10	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-7	-9.6	17
11	Brest	15	5	2	8	-8	-8.1	17
12	Reims	14	4	4	6	-4	-12.7	16
13	Angers	14	4	4	6	-4	-4.2	16
14	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
15	Rennes	14	4	1	9	-1	+0.2	13
16	Auxerre	14	3	3	8	-10	-13.3	12
17	St Etienne	15	1	3	11	-29	-27.1	6
18	Montpellier	14	1	0	13	-24	-17.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.