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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Nantes

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Lille

S T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 34%

20%

48%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

44%

52%

Both score Ø 64%

68%

60%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,21 xG 1,58

32% Possession 68%

10 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 14. · Lille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	20	5	0	+46	+42.8	65
2	Marseille	25	15	4	6	+22	+13.9	49
3	Nice	26	13	8	5	+19	+17.3	47
4	Monaco	25	13	5	7	+17	+29.4	44
5	Lille	25	12	8	5	+13	+7.3	44
6	Lyon	25	12	6	7	+15	+5.0	42
7	Strasbourg	25	11	7	7	+7	-6.0	40
8	Lens	25	10	6	9	+1	+4.7	36
9	Brest	25	11	3	11	-2	-5.8	36
10	Toulouse	25	9	7	9	+5	+9.8	34
11	Auxerre	26	8	8	10	-2	-10.9	32
12	Rennes	25	9	2	14	-1	+0.5	29
13	Angers	25	7	6	12	-14	-12.7	27
14	Nantes	25	5	9	11	-15	-10.5	24
15	Reims	25	5	7	13	-14	-17.2	22
16	Le Havre	25	6	3	16	-27	-16.6	21
17	St Etienne	25	5	5	15	-32	-31.0	20
18	Montpellier	25	4	3	18	-38	-19.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+25	+22.3	32
2	Monaco	13	9	2	2	+16	+20.5	29
3	Nice	13	8	4	1	+16	+12.4	28
4	Lille	13	8	3	2	+9	+0.4	27
5	Lyon	12	7	2	3	+9	+5.6	23
6	Auxerre	13	6	5	2	+9	+2.0	23
7	Brest	12	7	2	3	+8	+2.5	23
8	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+8	+12.8	22
9	Strasbourg	11	6	4	1	+8	+0.8	22
10	Rennes	14	7	1	6	+6	+3.1	22
11	St Etienne	12	5	2	5	-2	-4.4	17
12	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	+0	+2.2	16
13	Lens	12	4	2	6	-3	+5.1	14
14	Nantes	12	3	4	5	-2	+1.2	13
15	Montpellier	13	3	3	7	-17	-5.1	12
16	Angers	12	3	2	7	-11	-10.3	11
17	Reims	13	2	4	7	-8	-5.6	10
18	Le Havre	13	2	1	10	-21	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	3	0	+21	+20.5	33
2	Marseille	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.2	27
3	Lens	13	6	4	3	+4	-0.5	22
4	Lyon	13	5	4	4	+6	-0.6	19
5	Nice	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.9	19
6	Toulouse	12	5	3	4	+5	+7.6	18
7	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-1	-6.9	18
8	Lille	12	4	5	3	+4	+6.9	17
9	Angers	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
10	Monaco	12	4	3	5	+1	+8.9	15
11	Le Havre	12	4	2	6	-6	-5.1	14
12	Brest	13	4	1	8	-10	-8.3	13
13	Reims	12	3	3	6	-6	-11.7	12
14	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-13	-11.8	11
15	Auxerre	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.9	9
16	Rennes	11	2	1	8	-7	-2.6	7
17	Montpellier	12	1	0	11	-21	-14.8	3
18	St Etienne	13	0	3	10	-30	-26.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.