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Bundesliga

Referee: B Brand

Mainz

U S S S S

2–2

Full-time

Freiburg

S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 50%

52%

48%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

48%

60%

Both score Ø 46%

48%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,24 xG 3,14

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 24

4 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 3. · Freiburg 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	25	19	4	2	+51	+44.1	61
2	Leverkusen	25	15	8	2	+25	+22.5	53
3	Mainz	25	13	5	7	+16	+2.1	44
4	Ein Frankfurt	25	12	6	7	+12	+7.6	42
5	Freiburg	25	12	5	8	-2	-0.9	41
6	RB Leipzig	25	10	9	6	+6	-4.2	39
7	Wolfsburg	25	10	8	7	+10	-1.8	38
8	Stuttgart	25	10	7	8	+5	+7.9	37
9	M'gladbach	25	11	4	10	+1	-5.8	37
10	Dortmund	25	10	5	10	+6	+11.5	35
11	Augsburg	25	9	8	8	-7	-8.4	35
12	Werder Bremen	25	9	6	10	-11	-2.5	33
13	Union Berlin	25	7	6	12	-14	-7.1	27
14	Hoffenheim	26	6	8	12	-16	-14.5	26
15	St Pauli	26	7	4	15	-10	-6.6	25
16	Bochum	25	4	6	15	-25	-18.0	18
17	Holstein Kiel	25	4	5	16	-24	-15.6	17
18	Heidenheim	25	4	4	17	-23	-10.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+31	+30.3	34
2	Leverkusen	13	8	3	2	+12	+13.8	27
3	Freiburg	12	8	2	2	+11	+3.6	26
4	Dortmund	13	7	3	3	+15	+12.4	24
5	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	3	3	+11	+10.9	24
6	RB Leipzig	12	6	4	2	+7	+3.1	22
7	Mainz	12	6	3	3	+6	+5.3	21
8	Stuttgart	13	6	2	5	+7	+9.9	20
9	M'gladbach	13	6	2	5	+4	-0.1	20
10	Augsburg	12	5	4	3	+2	+3.8	19
11	Union Berlin	12	4	4	4	-1	+3.1	16
12	Wolfsburg	13	3	6	4	+0	+1.3	15
13	Werder Bremen	12	3	4	5	-6	+1.3	13
14	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-8	-3.9	13
15	St Pauli	13	3	3	7	-6	+0.1	12
16	Bochum	12	3	3	6	-7	-2.7	12
17	Holstein Kiel	13	3	2	8	-13	-6.3	11
18	Heidenheim	12	2	1	9	-14	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	8	3	1	+20	+13.8	27
2	Leverkusen	12	7	5	0	+13	+8.7	26
3	Wolfsburg	12	7	2	3	+10	-3.1	23
4	Mainz	13	7	2	4	+10	-3.2	23
5	Werder Bremen	13	6	2	5	-5	-3.8	20
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	3	4	+1	-3.3	18
7	RB Leipzig	13	4	5	4	-1	-7.3	17
8	Stuttgart	12	4	5	3	-2	-2.0	17
9	M'gladbach	12	5	2	5	-3	-5.7	17
10	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	-9	-12.2	16
11	Freiburg	13	4	3	6	-13	-4.4	15
12	St Pauli	13	4	1	8	-4	-6.6	13
13	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-8	-10.6	13
14	Dortmund	12	3	2	7	-9	-0.9	11
15	Union Berlin	13	3	2	8	-13	-10.3	11
16	Heidenheim	13	2	3	8	-9	-5.7	9
17	Holstein Kiel	12	1	3	8	-11	-9.3	6
18	Bochum	13	1	3	9	-18	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.