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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Man City

T T S S T

2–2

Full-time

Brighton

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 47%

50%

43%

Points per game

1,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

68%

Both score Ø 65%

61%

68%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,6

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,72 xG 2,04

60% Possession 40%

11 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 5. · Brighton 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	29	21	7	1	+42	+40.9	70
2	Arsenal	28	15	10	3	+28	+20.3	55
3	Nott'm Forest	28	15	6	7	+12	+1.7	51
4	Chelsea	28	14	7	7	+17	+17.3	49
5	Man City	28	14	5	9	+15	+12.6	47
6	Newcastle	28	14	5	9	+9	+10.6	47
7	Brighton	28	12	10	6	+6	+2.5	46
8	Aston Villa	29	12	9	8	-4	+1.6	45
9	Bournemouth	28	12	8	8	+13	+13.5	44
10	Fulham	28	11	9	8	+3	+6.7	42
11	Crystal Palace	28	10	9	9	+3	+8.2	39
12	Brentford	28	11	5	12	+4	+0.3	38
13	Tottenham	28	10	4	14	+14	-1.1	34
14	Man United	28	9	7	12	-6	-6.0	34
15	Everton	28	7	12	9	-4	-3.8	33
16	West Ham	28	9	6	13	-16	-9.8	33
17	Wolves	28	6	5	17	-19	-13.6	23
18	Ipswich	28	3	8	17	-32	-30.1	17
19	Leicester	28	4	5	19	-37	-29.1	17
20	Southampton	28	2	3	23	-48	-42.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	2	1	+20	+19.9	35
2	Arsenal	13	8	4	1	+16	+14.5	28
3	Nott'm Forest	14	8	4	2	+13	+5.6	28
4	Chelsea	14	8	4	2	+12	+14.5	28
5	Aston Villa	15	7	7	1	+7	+11.7	28
6	Man City	13	8	2	3	+11	+11.6	26
7	Brighton	14	6	6	2	+5	+4.6	24
8	Brentford	15	7	3	5	+3	+3.7	24
9	Newcastle	13	7	2	4	+7	+6.4	23
10	Bournemouth	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
11	Fulham	14	5	5	4	-1	+2.1	20
12	Man United	15	6	2	7	-4	-0.6	20
13	Tottenham	15	5	3	7	+4	-0.6	18
14	Everton	14	4	6	4	+3	+1.2	18
15	Crystal Palace	15	4	5	6	-5	+6.9	17
16	West Ham	15	5	2	8	-10	-7.2	17
17	Wolves	14	3	2	9	-9	-5.9	11
18	Leicester	14	2	3	9	-16	-11.9	9
19	Ipswich	14	1	4	9	-20	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	13	1	1	11	-28	-23.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	5	0	+22	+21.0	35
2	Arsenal	15	7	6	2	+12	+5.8	27
3	Newcastle	15	7	3	5	+2	+4.3	24
4	Bournemouth	15	6	5	4	+6	+5.5	23
5	Nott'm Forest	14	7	2	5	-1	-3.8	23
6	Crystal Palace	13	6	4	3	+8	+1.3	22
7	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+4	+4.6	22
8	Brighton	14	6	4	4	+1	-2.1	22
9	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+5	+2.8	21
10	Man City	15	6	3	6	+4	+1.0	21
11	Aston Villa	14	5	2	7	-11	-10.1	17
12	Tottenham	13	5	1	7	+10	-0.5	16
13	West Ham	13	4	4	5	-6	-2.6	16
14	Everton	14	3	6	5	-7	-4.9	15
15	Brentford	13	4	2	7	+1	-3.4	14
16	Man United	13	3	5	5	-2	-5.4	14
17	Wolves	14	3	3	8	-10	-7.6	12
18	Ipswich	14	2	4	8	-12	-19.2	10
19	Leicester	14	2	2	10	-21	-17.2	8
20	Southampton	15	1	2	12	-20	-19.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.