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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Farense

T T U T U

0–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Farense Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,3

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

12%

60%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

40%

52%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,6

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,43 xG 1,11

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

12 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Farense 17. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	25	18	5	2	+45	+37.5	59
2	Benfica	24	18	2	4	+38	+33.4	56
3	Porto	25	15	5	5	+29	+23.8	50
4	Sp Braga	25	15	5	5	+19	+14.2	50
5	Santa Clara	25	12	4	9	+1	+7.9	40
6	Guimaraes	25	9	11	5	+7	+9.8	38
7	Casa Pia	25	10	6	9	-1	-7.5	36
8	Estoril	25	9	8	8	-7	-16.1	35
9	Famalicao	25	8	10	7	+2	-4.9	34
10	Rio Ave	25	7	8	10	-13	-14.9	29
11	Moreirense	25	7	7	11	-7	-1.2	28
12	Arouca	25	7	7	11	-14	-7.5	28
13	Nacional	25	7	5	13	-12	-6.8	26
14	Gil Vicente	24	5	8	11	-12	-9.0	23
15	Estrela	25	5	8	12	-15	-12.5	23
16	AVS	25	4	11	10	-15	-12.4	23
17	Farense	25	3	8	14	-19	-17.9	17
18	Boavista	25	3	6	16	-26	-15.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+33	+25.0	36
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+20	+16.0	31
3	Porto	12	9	3	0	+23	+22.0	30
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+10	+13.3	24
5	Guimaraes	12	6	5	1	+7	+7.4	23
6	Santa Clara	13	7	2	4	+1	+10.5	23
7	Casa Pia	13	6	4	3	+4	+0.6	22
8	Estoril	13	6	4	3	+0	-4.7	22
9	Rio Ave	12	5	6	1	+2	+0.4	21
10	Moreirense	12	5	5	2	+2	-1.3	20
11	Nacional	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.3	20
12	Famalicao	13	4	6	3	+1	+0.7	18
13	Gil Vicente	11	4	4	3	+4	+0.8	16
14	Estrela	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.0	16
15	AVS	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.8	14
16	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.8	13
17	Farense	12	2	1	9	-12	-4.8	7
18	Boavista	13	1	3	9	-14	-4.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	8	4	1	+25	+21.5	28
2	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.9	26
3	Porto	13	6	2	5	+6	+1.8	20
4	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
5	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	-2.7	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	+1	-5.6	16
7	Guimaraes	13	3	6	4	+0	+2.4	15
8	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.7	15
9	Casa Pia	12	4	2	6	-5	-8.1	14
10	Estoril	12	3	4	5	-7	-11.4	13
11	Farense	13	1	7	5	-7	-13.2	10
12	AVS	12	1	6	5	-9	-4.6	9
13	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
14	Moreirense	13	2	2	9	-9	+0.1	8
15	Rio Ave	13	2	2	9	-15	-15.3	8
16	Estrela	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.6	7
17	Gil Vicente	13	1	4	8	-16	-9.8	7
18	Nacional	13	1	3	9	-11	-5.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.