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La Liga

Referee: Gil Manzano

Villarreal

S S U S T

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 55%

46%

63%

Points per game

1,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

62%

59%

Both score Ø 65%

73%

56%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,8

2,1

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,64 xG 1,01

46% Possession 54%

23 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 3

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 5. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	26	18	3	5	+46	+33.1	57
2	Real Madrid	27	17	6	4	+31	+24.7	57
3	Ath Madrid	27	16	8	3	+26	+19.7	56
4	Ath Bilbao	27	13	10	4	+21	+16.7	49
5	Villarreal	26	12	8	6	+12	+17.4	44
6	Betis	27	11	8	8	+2	+8.1	41
7	Mallorca	28	11	7	10	-6	+1.7	40
8	Celta	28	11	6	11	+0	+9.2	39
9	Vallecano	27	9	9	9	+0	+2.0	36
10	Sevilla	27	9	9	9	-4	-7.1	36
11	Sociedad	27	10	4	13	-5	-0.4	34
12	Getafe	27	8	9	10	+1	-6.2	33
13	Girona	27	9	6	12	-5	-1.8	33
14	Osasuna	26	7	12	7	-5	-7.7	33
15	Espanol	27	7	7	13	-13	-23.7	28
16	Alaves	28	6	9	13	-10	-3.1	27
17	Valencia	27	6	9	12	-15	-8.2	27
18	Leganes	27	6	9	12	-16	-21.9	27
19	Las Palmas	28	6	7	15	-15	-26.3	25
20	Valladolid	28	4	4	20	-45	-26.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	11	1	1	+21	+19.5	34
2	Ath Madrid	14	10	4	0	+17	+18.3	34
3	Ath Bilbao	14	8	5	1	+18	+12.5	29
4	Celta	14	9	2	3	+10	+6.0	29
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+24	+23.5	27
6	Betis	14	7	5	2	+7	+14.6	26
7	Osasuna	14	6	6	2	+5	+1.7	24
8	Espanol	14	6	5	3	+3	-6.1	23
9	Mallorca	15	6	5	4	+0	-0.1	23
10	Valencia	14	6	3	5	+2	+2.4	21
11	Villarreal	12	5	5	2	+9	+8.3	20
12	Girona	13	6	2	5	+4	+6.0	20
13	Sociedad	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.2	20
14	Getafe	14	4	7	3	+3	+2.3	19
15	Vallecano	13	5	4	4	+1	+8.5	19
16	Sevilla	13	5	4	4	-3	-0.1	19
17	Leganes	13	5	2	6	-6	-7.2	17
18	Alaves	13	4	4	5	-2	-0.2	16
19	Las Palmas	14	3	5	6	-4	-6.3	14
20	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-13	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+22	+9.6	30
2	Villarreal	14	7	3	4	+3	+9.1	24
3	Real Madrid	14	6	5	3	+10	+5.2	23
4	Ath Madrid	13	6	4	3	+9	+1.4	22
5	Ath Bilbao	13	5	5	3	+3	+4.2	20
6	Sevilla	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.9	17
7	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.6	17
8	Mallorca	13	5	2	6	-6	+1.8	17
9	Betis	13	4	3	6	-5	-6.5	15
10	Getafe	13	4	2	7	-2	-8.5	14
11	Sociedad	13	4	2	7	-6	-4.6	14
12	Girona	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.8	13
13	Alaves	15	2	5	8	-8	-2.9	11
14	Las Palmas	14	3	2	9	-11	-20.0	11
15	Celta	14	2	4	8	-10	+3.2	10
16	Leganes	14	1	7	6	-10	-14.7	10
17	Osasuna	12	1	6	5	-10	-9.4	9
18	Valencia	13	0	6	7	-17	-10.5	6
19	Espanol	13	1	2	10	-16	-17.7	5
20	Valladolid	14	1	0	13	-32	-19.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.