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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Lille

U S T U S

2–1

Full-time

Nantes

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,5

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

53%

47%

Both score Ø 54%

61%

47%

Average goals

2,9

2,4

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,22 xG 0,94

66% Possession 34%

9 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Nantes 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	36	27	3	6	+50	+8.9	84
2	Lens	36	23	9	4	+34	+7.6	78
3	Marseille	36	22	7	7	+29	+11.1	73
4	Monaco	36	19	8	9	+15	+4.0	65
5	Lille	36	18	9	9	+20	+14.1	63
6	Rennes	36	19	5	12	+27	+7.3	62
7	Lyon	36	17	8	11	+17	+2.0	59
8	Clermont	36	15	8	13	-7	-1.1	53
9	Nice	36	13	13	10	+8	+6.3	52
10	Lorient	36	14	10	12	+0	-6.2	52
11	Reims	36	12	15	9	+5	+10.4	51
12	Montpellier	36	14	5	17	+2	+0.3	47
13	Toulouse	36	12	8	16	-7	+0.8	44
14	Brest	36	10	11	15	-10	-6.7	41
15	Strasbourg	36	9	12	15	-7	+4.7	39
16	Auxerre	36	8	10	18	-26	-5.1	34
17	Nantes	36	6	15	15	-18	-7.3	33
18	Troyes	36	4	11	21	-35	-26.1	23
19	Ajaccio	36	6	5	25	-49	-9.6	23
20	Angers	36	3	6	27	-48	-15.3	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	18	16	1	1	+25	+1.0	49
2	Rennes	18	14	0	4	+27	+8.1	42
3	Paris SG	18	13	2	3	+21	+0.8	41
4	Lille	18	12	4	2	+14	+10.7	40
5	Marseille	18	10	4	4	+12	+8.6	34
6	Lyon	18	9	5	4	+13	+3.6	32
7	Reims	18	8	6	4	+7	+10.8	30
8	Monaco	18	9	3	6	+5	-0.8	30
9	Lorient	18	8	4	6	+4	+1.4	28
10	Clermont	18	8	3	7	-10	+1.9	27
11	Brest	18	7	5	6	-1	-0.6	26
12	Nice	18	6	7	5	+4	+3.5	25
13	Montpellier	18	7	3	8	+1	+0.7	24
14	Toulouse	18	6	5	7	+0	+2.3	23
15	Auxerre	18	5	7	6	-8	+0.4	22
16	Strasbourg	18	5	6	7	-1	+6.0	21
17	Nantes	18	4	8	6	-7	-2.2	20
18	Troyes	18	1	10	7	-11	-13.3	13
19	Ajaccio	18	3	3	12	-21	-2.2	12
20	Angers	18	2	3	13	-17	-4.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	14	1	3	+29	+8.2	43
2	Marseille	18	12	3	3	+17	+2.4	39
3	Monaco	18	10	5	3	+10	+4.8	35
4	Lens	18	7	8	3	+9	+6.6	29
5	Lyon	18	8	3	7	+4	-1.7	27
6	Nice	18	7	6	5	+4	+2.8	27
7	Clermont	18	7	5	6	+3	-3.0	26
8	Lorient	18	6	6	6	-4	-7.7	24
9	Lille	18	6	5	7	+6	+3.4	23
10	Montpellier	18	7	2	9	+1	-0.3	23
11	Reims	18	4	9	5	-2	-0.3	21
12	Toulouse	18	6	3	9	-7	-1.4	21
13	Rennes	18	5	5	8	+0	-0.9	20
14	Strasbourg	18	4	6	8	-6	-1.4	18
15	Brest	18	3	6	9	-9	-6.1	15
16	Nantes	18	2	7	9	-11	-5.1	13
17	Auxerre	18	3	3	12	-18	-5.5	12
18	Ajaccio	18	3	2	13	-28	-7.4	11
19	Troyes	18	3	1	14	-24	-12.8	10
20	Angers	18	1	3	14	-31	-10.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.